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Over-Optimizing for Performance
Recently on the csharp subreddit, the post C# 9.0 records: immutable classes linked to a surprisingly controversial article discussing how C# 9.0's records are, underneath it all, immutable classes. The comments are full of back-&-forth over whether one should use records for ease or structs for performance. The pro-struct argument revolved around the belief that performance should always be a developer's #1 priority, and anything less was the realm of the laggard. Here is a real-world example that shows with stark clarity why that kind of thinking is wrong. Consider the following scenario:
You're working on a game with dozens, maybe hundreds of people on the team; you don't know because when you were cross with facilities about them removing all the fluorescents, you got accused of being against the new energy saving initiative. Now you swim in a malevolent ocean of darkness that on some very late nights alone in the office, you swear is actively trying to consume you.
The team that preceded you inherited an engine that is older than OOP, when source repositories were stacks of 8-inch floppies, and it looked as if Jefferson Starship was going to take over the world. One year ago they bequeathed upon the company this nightmare of broken, undocumented GOTO spaghetti & anti-patterns. You're convinced this was their sadistic revenge for all getting fired post-acquisition.
Management denied your request to get headcount for an additional technical artist, but helpfully supplied you with an overly nervous intern. After several weeks working alongside them, you're beginning to suspect they're pursuing something other than a liberal arts degree.
Despite the many getting started guides you spent countless evenings writing, the endless brownbags nobody attended, and the daily dozen emails you forward to oppressively inquisitive artists comprised of a single passive-aggressive sentence suggesting they scroll down to the part that begins FW: FW: FW: FW: FW: FW: RE: WE BROKE TOOL NEED WORKAROUND ASAP ...
...yes, despite all of that, the engineering team still spent days tracking down why the game kept crashing with Error 107221: У вас ошибка after re-re-re-re-re-throwing an ex_exception when it couldn't (and should never even try to) load a 16K-textured floor mat.
Despite your many attempts to politely excuse yourself, one blissfully unaware artist exhausts 48 minutes of your lunch break explaining how the Pitchfork review for the latest "dope slab" of this TikTok-Instagram-naphouse artist you never heard of was just sooooo unfair.
And then in their hurry to finish up & catch the 2:30 PM bus home, they forget to toggle Compress To CXIFF (Custom Extended Interchange File Format), set the Compression slider 5/6ths of the way between -3 & -2, look to their left, look to their right, click Export As .MA 0.9.3alpha7, and make absolutely, positively, 100% SURE not to be working in prod. And THAT is how the game explodicated.
You know better than anyone the intermediate file format the main game loop passes to Game.dll, memory mapping it as a reverse top-middle Endian binary structure.
You know for 381 of the parameter fields what their 2-7 character names probably mean.
YOU know which 147 fields always have to be included, but with a null value, and that the field ah_xlut must ALWAYS be set to 0 unless it's Thursday, in which case that blackbox from hell requires its internal string equivalent: TRUE.
YOU know that the two tech artists & one rapidly aging intern that report to you would totally overhaul tooling so artists would never "happen" again, but there just aren't enough winters, springs, summers, falls, July 4ths, Christmas breaks, Presidents Days, and wedding anniversaries in a year to properly do so.
And so somehow you do. A blurry evening or two here. A 3:00 AM there. Sometimes just a solitary lunch hour.
Your dog no longer recognizes you.
You miss your wife calling to say she's finally cleaning out the hall closet and if you want to keep this box of old cards & something in plastic that says Underground Sea Beta 9.8 Grade, you better call her back immediately.
And your Aunt Midge, who doesn't understand how SMS works, bombards you one evening: your father is... no longer with us... they found him... 1 week ago... in an abandoned Piggly Wiggly... by an old culvert... split up... he was then... laid down to rest... sent to St. Peter's... and your father... he's in a better place now... don't worry... it's totally okay... we decided we will all go... up to the mountain
You call your sister in a panic and, after a tidal wave of confusion & soul-rending anxiety, learn it was just Hoboken Wireless sending the messages out of order. This causes you to rapidly cycle.
On your bipolar's upswing, you find yourself more productive than you've ever been. Your mind is aglow with whirling, transient nodes of thought careening through a cosmic vapor of invention. It's like your brain is on 200mg of pure grade Adderall.
Your fingers ablaze with records, clean inheritance, beautiful pattern matching, bountiful expression syntax, aircraft carriers of green text that generate the most outstanding CHM for an internal tool the world has ever seen. Readable. PERFECTLY SOLID.
After much effort, you gaze upon the completed GUI of your magnum opus with the kind of pride you imagine one would feel if they hadn't missed the birth of their son. Clean, customer-grade WPF; tooltips for every control; sanity checks left & right; support for plugins & light scripting. It's even integrated with source control!
THOSE GODDAMNED ARTISTS CAN'T FAIL. YOUR PIPELINE TOOL WON'T LET THEM.
All they have to do is drag content into the application window, select an options template or use the one your tool suggests after content analysis, change a few options, click Export, and wait for 3-5 minutes to generate Game.dll-compatible binary.
Your optimism shines through the commit summary, your test plan giddy & carefree. With great anticipation, you await code review.
A week goes by. Then two. Then three. Nothing. The repeated pinging of engineers, unanswered.
Two months in you've begun to lose hope. Three months, the pangs of defeat. Four months, you write a blog post about how fatalism isn't an emotion or outlook, but the TRANSCENDENCE of their sum. Two years pass by. You are become apathy, destroyer of wills.
December 23rd, 2022: the annual Winter Holidays 2-hour work event. The bar is open, the Kokanee & Schmidt's flowing (max: 2 drink tickets). The mood a year-high ambivalent; the social distancing: acceptable. They even have Pabst Blue Ribbon, a beer so good it won an award once.
Standing beside you are your direct reports, Dave "Macroman" Thorgletop and wide-eyed The Intern, the 3 of you forming a triumvirate of who gives a shit. Dave is droning on & on about a recent family trip to Myrtle Beach. You pick up something something "can you believe that's when my daughter Beth scooped up a dead jellyfish? Ain't that something? A dead jellyfish," and "they even had a Ron Jons!"
You barely hear him, lost as you are in thought: "I wishIhad 2 days of vacation." You stare down ruefully at your tallboy.
From the corner of your eye you spot Milbert, index finger pointed upward, face a look of pure excitement.
"Did I tell you about my OpenWinamp project? It's up on SourceForge", he says as he strides over. It's unsettling how fast this man is.
Dave snickers. The Intern keeps staring wide-eyed. You position yourself somewhat close to the studio's 3 young receptionists, hoping they serve as a kind of ritual circle of protection.
It works... kind of. Milbert is now standing uncomfortably close to The Intern, Dave nowhere to be seen.
From across the room you distinctly hear "Think about it, the 1st-person UI could be Lua-driven Electron."
The Intern clearly understands that words are being spoken to them, but does not comprehend their meaning.
You briefly feel sorry for the sacrificial lamb.
You slide across the wall, putting even more distance between you & boredom made man. That's when you spot him, arrogantly aloof in the corner: Glen Glengerry. Core engineering's most senior developer.
Working his way up from a 16-year old game tester making $4.35 an hour plus free Dr. Shasta, to pulling in a cool $120K just 27-years later, plus benefits & Topo Chicos. His coding style guides catechism, his Slack pronouncements ex cathedra; he might as well be CTO.
You feel lucky your team is embedded with the artists. You may have sat through their meetings wondering why the hell you should care about color theory, artistic consistency, & debates about whether HSL or CMYK was the superior color space (spoiler: it's HSL), you were independent and to them, a fucking code wizard, man.
And there he stands, this pseudo-legend, so close you could throw a stapler at him. Thinning grey-blonde tendrils hanging down from his CodeWarrior hat, white tee with This Guy VIMs on the back, tucked into light blue jeans. He's staring out into the lobby at everything and yet... nothing all at.
Maybe it's the 4.8% ABV. Maybe it's the years of crushing down anger into a singularity, waiting for it to undergo rapid fiery expansion, a Big Bang of righteous fury. Maybe it's those sandals with white socks. Maybe it's all three. But whatever it is, it's as if God himself compels you to march over & give him a piece of your mind, seniority be damned.
"Listen, you big dumb bastard..."
That... is maybe a little too aggressive. But Glen Glengerry barely reacts. Pulling a flask out of his back pocket, he doesn't look over as he passes it to you.
Ugh. Apple Pucker.
"I thought bringing in your own alcohol was against company policy", wiping sticky green sludge from your lips. He turns with a look of pure disdain & snorts.
"You think they're going to tell ME what I can & can't bring in?" He grabs the flask back, taking a big swig.
For what feels like an eternity, you both stand in silence. You swallow, speaking softly. "None of you even looked at my code. I worked very, very hard on that. My performance review for that year simply read 'recommend performance improvement plan." The words need no further context.
"I know", Glen² replies. "That was me."
Now you're not a weak man, and maybe in some other circumstance you would have punched him in the goddamn lip. But you feel nothing, just a hollowness inside. "Why?", you ask, wondering if the answer would even matter.
"Because you don't use Bulgarian notation. Because your method names aren't lower camel case. Because good code doesn't require comments. Because you use classes & records over more performant structs, pointlessly burdening the heapstack. BECAUSE. YOUR CODE. IS. SHIT."
You clinch your fists so tightly the knuckles whiten.
He looks away from you, taking another sip of green goo. "You're not a coder. You're an artist masquerading as one" he speaks, as if it were fact.
The only thing artistic about you is the ability to create user-friendly internal tooling using nothing but a UI framework, broken down garbage nobody wants to touch, & sheer willpower. If your son's life depended on you getting accepted into art instruction school, you couldn't even draw a turtle.
He doesn't pause. "I'll champion ruthless micro-optimization until the day I die. But buddy, I'm going to let you in on a little secret: you aren't here to improve workflow. You're here to LOOK like you're doing something NOBODY else can."
He goes on. "What do you think those artists are going to do when they have to stare at a progress bar for 4, 5 minutes? They're going to complain your tool is slow."
"Sure, it may take them 20, 30 minutes to do it the old way, there'll be an error, and either they'll stare at it for 30 minutes before adding that missing semi-colon or they'll come get you. And you'll fix it. And 1 week later, they won't remember how. And you'll stay employed. And every. Body. Wins."
A little bit of the pride, the caring, wells back up inside from somewhere long forgotten.
"You don't think we should care about rapid application development & KISS, quickly getting things out that help our team, instead devoting ourselves to shaving off ticks here & there? What do you think artists are going to do with those 4 minutes you talk about?
You don't stop. "I'll tell you what they'll do. They'll 9GAG for 20 minutes straight. They'll listen to podcasts about dialectical materialism vis-a-vis the neo-feudalism that is a natural extension of the modern world's capitalist prison. They'll Reddit."
His silence gives you the bravery to push the limits.
"Christ, man. Are you only in it for the $120K..."
He corrects you: "...$123K."
"...only in it for the $123K/year? The free snacks from the microkitchen? The adulation? Have you no sense of comraderie?? No desire to push us to something better?! No integrity?!!!"
His eyes sharply narrow, face creases in anger. You clearly have overstepped your bounds.
"You thinkIdon't have integrity? No sense of teamwork? I'm only in it for the cold cash? You think I don't care about you all?", he roars.
A light volley of small green flecks land on your face.
"Why do you think they made a 16-year old tester the lead developer of a 1993 Doom clone?! Because my code was clean & painless to work with?! Because I made coding look easy?! No! IT WAS BECAUSE I WAS A GOD TO THEM.
And from a God, a PANTHEON. We built monuments to over-engineering! We crafted that of 7 weeks onboarding, that of immortal bugs, demonic hosts spawned by legion from the very loins of a fix. It took 2 years before a developer could BEGIN to feel confident they knew what they were doing. And by that time, they were one of US!
You think the team we laid off November '19 was fired because they were bad at their jobs? NO! It was because they worked themselves out of one. They didn't leave us a broken pipeline. They left an internal Wiki, a wealth of tools & example projects, and a completely transparent code base.
We couldn't have THAT, now could we? No, we couldn't. So we got rid of it. ALL OF IT. Poof. Gone. Just like that. Before anyone even knew a THING."
He leans forward, so close his psoriasis almost touches yours. With an intensity that borders on frightening, he whispers "You think they left us Game.dll? I fucking *MADE** Game.dll."*
The words hit hard like a freight train.
And without another word, he turns & leaves. You're left there, alone, coworkers milling about, with only one thought.
Were one to get a hobby, should it be cocaine?
It's these kinds of situations that make me believe there are far more important considerations than a ruthless dedication to performance, even in the game industry as my real-world scenario so clearly demonstrates.
The morning alarm woke up Ghen. With an annoyed sigh, he stretched out his arm and silenced the foul-sounding chirps. Slowly sitting up in bed, he let out a deep yawn and got to his feet. Running a couple of chitinous fingers along his antennae to stimulate them to life, he made his bed and then went to his closet. Today was a work day, so he needed his suit. Once the pants were on, he stretched out his wings so that he could button up the shirt, then relaxing them once all the buttons were secured. Dressing for the day was done, now for the morning meal. Entering his kitchen, he took out the chilled leftovers of the evening meal last night and popped it into the radiator, first defrosting and then slightly cooking it. During that process, he also fished out a ceramic cup and placed it in his brewer, serving himself some synthesized caffeine. His idle thought led him to being amused that, when eaten directly off a plant, it has a concentration that could kill him three times over. But after going through some refinement and roasting, all it does is make him hyper. Once the meal was put together, his plate of heated leftovers and a cup of almost-piping-hot cup of Xia's, he took his time to enjoy it. His communicator vibrated. When he looked, he found it was from his boss. "Hello?" Ghen answered. "Ghen, the meeting's been moved up to a few minutes from now." His boss, Xkik, announced. "Apparently higher up has something important they want to say. We have a terminal ready for you, I'll message the login details." "Wha-, what's so important?" Ghen asked in bewilderment. "Did a water line rupture or something?" "No, nothing like that." Xkik replied with a slight chuckle. "It's actually about the rumors we've been hearing. That human corporation wanting to acquire us? That's what they're talking about." Ghen could feel everything inside his thorax drop to the floor. "That must mean it's true then, right? Did we get sold off by the Queen to this company then?" "Show up to the meeting and you'll get your answer." Xkik said simply. When he finished, Ghen got the notification on his communicator. There's the login details, allowing him to remotely attend the meeting. "They're about to start, hurry up." Once Xkik disconnected, Ghen worked fast to login and set up the remote viewing. Once everything was done, his screen started transmitting the meeting room. It was already packed. And off by the main board, he saw his answer. There was a human, resting against the wall on his two legs. Standing right in the center of everyone's view was the coordinator, Tizx, watching the clock periodically. As soon as the meeting's start time was reached, the coordinator began. "Alright everyone. I realize that this was rather short notice, so I want to say how appreciative I am that you made it. Now then, let's just get right to it. For some time now, many of you have been hearing rumors that a human corporation has been interested in us. Why? We never really knew. We're just an organization responsible for finding, extracting and providing water to the colony here all under the direction of the Queen herself. Well, as of now, I have the answer for you. Why don't I let Ryan say that?" Stepping back, Tizx motioned for the human, Ryan, to take over. With a nod, Ryan practically bounced over and then took the position. "Good morning to you all. I hope my Zazk is passable, heh. Anyways, the answer to those rumors, is yes. Terran Galactic Company is indeed interested in you all. Which now leads to me. I'm here to announce that, effective yesterday evening, this water company is now a subsidiary of Terran Galactic Company, under the name of Zilia Water Delivery." Many other sub-coordinators broke into hushed conversation, no doubt speaking their thoughts with each other about this move. Ghen could only wonder if this was even a good thing. What will the humans do? Will he still have his job? Will he have to learn how to deal with the ruthless humans? "Now, I am well aware this is quite the...uh, change." Ryan continued. "That's why I'm happy to inform you that, no, nothing negative or detrimental will happen to you. You just have new people to answer to. Operations will continue as normal, everybody here will still keep their jobs. The only real change any of you will personally experience is that Coordinator Tizx here will now report to someone else. On behalf of the Terran Galactic Company, we are extremely excited and are looking forward to working with you all. Thank you for your time." A week later. At least Ryan wasn't lying. After the initial shock wore off, things went back as they normally did. There were no terminations, no reductions in annual pay or anything. Nothing really changed. At least until this new meeting was called. Ghen was at the worksite this time, so he took his seat and watched as, once again, Ryan led the meeting. "Hello again, everyone!" He said cheerfully, his Zazk noticeably improved. "I hope I didn't end up looking like a liar, right? Everything's still normal, all that?" All the zazk in the room confirmed, providing comments to their pleasant surprise as well as lingering thoughts. "Awesome! Awesome." Ryan said jubilantly, his fleshy mouth revealing his bone-white teeth. "Now then, you're probably wondering why I'm here again, right? Well, I got another fantastic piece of news for you all! Two, actually. I'll start with the first: Zilia Water Delivery has just completed its IPO. The company is now publicly traded!" Ghen and the others voiced their confusion, having no idea what in the name of the Queen Ryan was talking about. What was Ryan talking about? What's an IPO? And why exactly is being publicly traded such a significant thing? "Oh, you guys don't know any of that?" Ryan asked in surprised confusion. After everybody confirmed, he let out a quick huff as he began his explanation. "Well, to begin, IPO is short for Initial Public Offering. Basically what that means is that, before today, Zilia was privately held. Only certain individuals could buy and sell shares here. But now that we're public? Literally anyone can buy and sell shares in the company, hence us being publicly traded." "Uh, what's a share?" Ghen asked, still completely lost. "Oh, boy..." Ryan muttered under his breath before returning to his peppy image. "To simply put it, a share is short for having a share of ownership in a company. When you buy a share, you're buying a piece of ownership, and when you sell, you're selling that amount." "So wait...if someone buys a share, they're a co-owner then?" One of the other team coordinators asked. "If they get enough, yeah." Ryan nodded. "You need a lot though, and that really depends on the company. If I had to give an answer though? I'd say usually you need to have a lot more shares than a lot of people combined to be officially a co-owner, but we call that being a majority shareholder." "And how do we do that?" Ghen asked, now growing curious but still not understanding why such a concept exists. "Simple. Buy shares." Ryan said simply. "And that leads into the second piece of awesome news. Zilia's corporate has a product in mind, a premium-package of water delivery. Instead of the usual water that you pump out, filter and ensure its potable before delivery, with the premium package, not only will you get that, but you'll also get all of the required nutrients and vitamins the zazk body requires! And they feel you guys have the best expertise and understanding to pull it off! So, here's what we're offering as a good-faith bonus: A 25% increase to your annual salary as well as being given stock options." Ghen wasn't sure about the second part, but the salary definitely got his attention, as well as everyone else's. Although his job was considered to have a good pay, Ghen isn't going to say no to a higher salary. In fact, he's been focusing his work on getting a promotion so he can come home with even more credits in pocket. "What do you mean by stock options?" Ghen asked after some time. Ryan let out that smile again, the one that revealed his teeth. "If you choose to transfer over to the new group, you'll be provided 50,000 shares in Zilia itself. Why's that awesome? Let me walk you through it. Right now, our last closing price per share was 3.02 credits. And if you have 50,000 shares during that time, you're sitting on 151,000 credits, if you cash it out immediately." "And why shouldn't we?" One of the coordinators demanded in an ambiguous tone. "Because the price per share changes a lot." Ryan explained promptly. "When we got done with the IPO? It closed at 2.73 a share. Right now? My money's on the closing price being 2.99 a share. However, we are extremely confident in this premium package being successful. If it does? Well, my bet is that the share price will skyrocket to 3.12 a share. If you hold those shares and the price gets to what my bet was? You'll instead get 156,000 credits. Just by holding onto them, you just made an additional 5,000 credits!" "And what if we have more shares?" Ghen questioned, now getting excited at the prospect of free money. "Even more money!" Ryan laughed a bit. "And don't forget about dividends, but that's for another time. The premium group is gearing up right now, we just need the workforce. If any of you wants in, I'll be back tomorrow with all the forms needed to make it official. Take the day and tonight to think it over, yeah?" Everything else melted into a blur. Ghen was practically on autopilot that whole day. Was this the secret to the humans' incredibly massive economy? How so many of them have amassed so much money out of nowhere? All you had to do was just buy this share out of a company and you get more money without even working? As soon as he got home, Ghen knew what he was going to do during the night. After feverishly looking through the galnet, now having the human race connected to it, he looked and gathered up as many books that were translated into zazk as he could find, all talking about the human economic system. The last time he undertook such an intensive study was during his primary education phase. And during his search, he even found forums on the galnet that were completely dedicated to the human's economy. All of them talking about strategies on what company, or stock, to pick. How to analyze a company's performance to determine if it was worth the money, or it had potential to grow over time. And that was when he discovered the humans found another method to the extremely simple buying and selling process. There were humans and some other immigrated aliens who made five times what Ghen could receive over a simple month just by watching the share prices during trading hours, and then buying and selling them at the proper times. Ghen's mind was just absolutely flabbergasted. He thought it was just some strange concept only aliens could make, but no, not with the humans. They've practically made their economy into an art or a science. No, not even their economy. Everything. If humans can see a way to make money off of it, they'll do it. And if there isn't, they'll look for a way. Healthcare was monetized. Galnet services, transportation, shopping at the store, they even made all of their utilities into profit-oriented companies. And it was there that Ghen paused, the realization slamming into him. Everything was monetized. Which means, if you don't have the money for it, you're not getting it. Right? Are the humans truly that ruthless? So obsessed with making money? To the point that they're willing to deprive their own people of the absolute necessities if it's a source of credits? Ghen let out a scoff. There's no way. Nobody is that cruel and callous. He's never been to the United Nations. He can't rely on what a bunch of random people on the galnet says. He decided that from here on out, he'll only go as far as saying that humans are a little obsessed with credits, nothing more. ... There he was. Ryan, sitting in the office provided to him. And there was a rather large line leading to him. Looks like word got around. Although, the line wasn't as large as he expected it to be. Maybe the others thought it was just a ruse? That there's no such thing as making free money by spending it on such a made-up concept? Ghen only knows that, if it is a ruse, it's an extremely elaborate one, where all of the humans are in on it. And he believes that's just extremely ridiculous. At the end, if he's unsure, he'll just take the transfer for the very real increase in his very real salary. And although he spent a very good chunk of the night reading up on how humans do things, he's still going to play it smart. He'll leave his 50,000 shares alone and see where it goes from there. "Good morning sir." Ryan greeted warmly once Ghen took his seat. "Now, name please?" "Ghen." He answered, barely keeping his nerves down. "Alright...and what's your position at this location?" Ryan questioned after scribbling on his form. "I monitor the pumping stations near the extraction sites." Ghen explained, staying on point. "To be more specific, I check to see if they're in need of maintenance, as well as reading the flow rate that's determined by the calculators installed there. If there's too little for what's needed, I pump out more. And if there's too much, I pull it back a little." "Nice...and how long have you been doing it for?" Ryan complimented with a nod. "As of tomorrow, ten years." Ghen replied, voice quickly changing to minor awe once he realized that fact. "Excellent. Do you have anyone in mind you'd like to replace you here?" Ryan questioned after another scribble. "If you don't have anyone, you're free to say so." Ghen took a moment to think it over. A bunch of names went through his mind, but one stuck with him. "Tilik. He's just been accepted here, but he's learned quickly. Very attentive and he always catches something subtle. I think he'll do really well in my position, even better actually." "Tilik, really?" Ryan questioned with a little shock, going through his completed forms. Ghen felt a short sense of panic in him. Did something happen, or was Tilik actually transferring? His answer didn't take long to reveal itself. "Right, Tilik was actually one of the first people to want to transfer here. He's actually requested to be part of the testing teams specifically. Do you have a second choice?" "Um...no, actually." Ghen replied, feeling a little ashamed. "Tilik was my only choice, to be honest." "Hey, don't worry." Ryan said assuringly with his hands raised. "Nothing wrong with that. Sometimes, there's just nobody up to snuff, right? 'Kay, so, last question. Is there anything specific you'd like to do when given the transfer?" "If you need someone monitoring new pumps, I'd be happy to do that." Ghen stated. "So basically same job but with better payoff, am I right?" Ryan grinned. "I hear you. Sometimes, we're just not paid enough for what we're doing. I know I think that sometimes. Uh, our secret, yeah?" "Yeah, our secret." Ghen nodded, thinking it'd be better to have friendly relations with the human, just in case. "Awesome. Back on topic, that's it." Ryan announced, placing the form on his pile. "We'll give you a call when you're accepted." "Oh, uh, that's it?" Ghen questioned with a shrug in shocked surprise. "What, expecting a question like, why do you want to transfer?" Ryan chuckled a bit as he leaned in his seat. "You can bullshit all you want, but we both know the answer. Sweet money and stock options. Not saying that's a bad answer of course, just that it's pretty obvious." "I suppose it is." Ghen commented, realizing the point. "Also, you mentioned this...dividend? Is that for Zilia shares?" Ryan laughed a little bit before nodding. "Yep, announced before I came here. About 0.43 per share. Want to know why that's awesome? Instead of waiting for the proper price to cash out your shares, now? The company pays you for each share you hold." "A...Are you serious?" Ghen demanded, flabbergasted. Ryan nodded with his now-trademark grin. "Dead serious. If you get the transfer, and get those 50,000 shares? A little head math...right, if you hold onto those, in addition to your salary, you'll now annually be paid 21,500 credits, if you keep it at 50,000 shares. Only you can decide to sell or buy shares." Ghen just stood there silent and motionless, no idea of whether to believe it or not, to which Ryan just laughed. Once he walked out of the room, he managed to snap back to reality. Again, just focus on the very real pay-raise. He'll deal with the other parts later. After he returned to his spot, he spotted Tizx approaching by his desk. The coordinator seems to be as casual as always. "I saw you in that line a bit ago, Ghen." He said as he leaned on the desk. "Guess you're really taking that human's word?" "I mean, I don't know about all this share business or what not." Ghen began with a shrug, his tone sounding a little defensive. "But I mean, having a bigger salary? Course I'm going for it when I can. And if all this magic credits turn out to be real? You realize we can live like the royal servants, right? Get the best cars, the nicest food and all that?" "I'd be very careful, Ghen." Tizx warned in a sudden shift in tone. "Don't trust those humans. The way they just...obsess over money? Come up with more and more insane ways of getting credits? I don't know, it just makes my wings twitch." "You think this is a bad idea?" Ghen asked with a little surprise at the change-in-demeanor. "I think you should be careful, with the humans, and with what you're saying." Tizx replied, straightening his posture. "I wouldn't put it past those Earthmen to backstab you if it gets them a few more credits. And we all know how the royal servants get if any of us lowly commoners start thinking we can break into their circle." "I hear you, I'll be on my guard, promise." Ghen stated with a nod. With a confirming nod of his own, Tizx returned back to his duty, walking past Ghen's desk. Several weeks later. Everything became so much better. Ghen got the transfer. He didn't need to relocate to a new residence either. And after he was walked through into learning how to manage his stock account, and seeing that new form of payment in his hands, he already felt as though he made the best decision. But it was only when he decided to take those shares more seriously that he became privy to what he was given. After receiving the dividend payment, and actually seeing it was real, valid credits after transferring it to his main bank account, all he could describe was the most powerful high he ever felt. While his first thoughts were to buy himself a royalty-class car, some nicer furnishings for his home, or even a better home entirely, he ended up going the smarter route. After going back to his stock account, he discovered that Zilia's shares rose to about 3.22 credits in price. Knowing that this was the easiest money he could ever make, he took all of his dividend earnings and bought more shares in Zilia, bringing him to owning 56,891. And from his new regional coordinator, a human named Dylan, tomorrow is the grand release of the premium package. For just a monthly rate of 14.99 credits, the tap water will now include a sizeable portion of all nutrients and vitamins required in the zazk physiology. Still, Ghen has to admit. He's not entirely sure why anybody would want such a thing, if they'd even go for it. But, as long as he's practically swimming in easy credits, he won't pay much attention to it. And just like when he was intensively studying the basics of how the human economy worked, he barely got any sleep. His mind was constantly thinking about the things he would buy. Or rather, what other stocks to put his credits into. Even now he can still hardly believe it. Just spend your money on some, make-believe thing and, if you wait long enough and picked the right stock, you'll get more than you spent back? His mind even wandered onto what human colonies, or even their homeworld, Earth, was like. If everybody was making so much money, what kind of things would they offer? What kind of ridiculous service or product or item can you get? He's even debating on joining some forum and just asking around. Explain how he's new to how humans do things and was wondering what he should expect if he's successful. By the time he felt like he can go to sleep, the binary-stars of the system were rising from the horizon. After getting out of his bed and changing to clean clothes, his mind returned onto what-ifs. What if he bought better clothes? He's had his eye on that human brand of luxury clothes, Tessuti di Venezia, that's been all the rage amongst the royal servants. Or maybe he can go on vacation and just check out Earth for real? It was a short ride to his workplace from his home. After getting stuff his stuff and preparing to walk through the doors, he heard the roar of a car grow louder. When he looked, he saw the sleekest and quite possibly the coolest looking car he's ever seen. Each time the engine revved it would startle him, both from how harsh it sounded as well as just how intense it sounded. And after it parked, he saw the doors pop out and then slide along the body back. And there, he saw Tilik, the seat literally turning and extending out a bit before he got off. As soon as he saw Ghen staring, he struck a rather prideful pose after putting on his lab coat and then sauntered over to Ghen. "What do you think?" Tilik said, without any doubt inviting praise or compliments. "D...Did you actually buy that?" Ghen asked, unable to tear his eyes away from the car. "You're Queens-damn right I did!" Tilik laughed happily. "Thing takes off like a starship, has temperature-controlled seating, all-in-one center console, barely any bouncing on rough roads. Hoof, best decision I've ever made!" "How much did that thing cost?" Ghen asked after letting out an incredulous laugh. "Five million credits." Tilik replied, earning an absolutely shocked stare from Ghen. "And thanks to the incredible salary I have, in addition to all these shares and dividends, I'll pay back the credits I borrowed in no time!" Ghen needed a few moments before he could speak again. "All I've been doing is buying more shares." Tilik laughed and then patted the now-envious monitor's back. "Smart man. I got a little carried away, yeah, but not anymore. Any spending credits I got, going right back to investing. That's what it's called right, investing?" "Yeah, it is." Ghen nodded, feeling a fire light up in his thorax. "And also? Today's the day that the premium water thing is being released. Here's hoping it starts out well, right?" "Oh it will, trust me." Tilik chuckled as they both began making their way inside the workplace. "Lots of research, lots of study. By the Queen, so much of it...it'll make your head spin." And after hearing that, Ghen had a moment of realization. "Hey, Tilik? How did you get such a nice position anyways? Weren't you just studying under me before the humans came along?" Tilik let out a sigh after opening the door. "I'll be honest, I never wanted your job. Not because it's boring or terrible, just...I didn't suffer so many sleepless nights in the science academy just to be a glorified button pusher. This is what I've always wanted. Doing science, solving problems rather than just applying the solution, you know?" "Wait, you got an academic certificate?" Ghen questioned, completely floored. "How did you end up beneath me then? I should've been answering to you!" "Simple." Tilik gave a heavier sigh. "A royal servant was asking for the same job I was. Take a guess at who got it." "Ouch. Good thing the humans came along when they did, yeah?" Ghen was taken aback. He never heard anything about a servant taking a job at his place. "Looks like you're proving yourself to be well suited." "By the Queen, of course I am." Tilik nodded. "Like I said, I nearly broke my wings through so many nights, got certified top of my class, all just to get pushed to the dirt because someone who was born into a particular family wanted the same thing I did? I know I'm smarter than any of those empty-skull servants back in the Center. I know that, whatever, uh...corporate? Yeah, whatever corporate wants out of science, I will xeek give it to them." "Well, let me know how things go in the lab." Ghen said, admiring his drive as they neared the main office floor. "Because this is where the button pusher needs to go." Tilik let out a laugh as he nodded. "Hey, how about we meet up at Queen's Fine Eatery tonight. I'll pay, yeah?" Ghen, at first, wanted to admonish him for choosing such an outrageously expensive place to go. But he quickly realized that, he truly is good for it, thanks to the humans. "Well, hey, if you're paying for it." ... It was a fantastic opening. After being told what news sites to keep in mind for stocks, he first heard it from Dylan, and then got more detail on Business Today. There was such a massive demand right from the start that Zilia needs to increase extraction just to meet it. But what really got his attention was the effect it had. Zilia Water Delivery's share price just blasted off. After seemingly holding steady at about 3.15, by the time he got home and logged onto his account, it already reached 7.04 a share. The calculator on his account told him that he got a value-gain of 54.26%. Never in his entire life had he felt such...joy. With all of the shares he currently has? He's sitting at 400,512.64 credits. He knows that it is woefully pathetic compared to what the royal servants have just in their pockets, but the fact that he has such money, just by owning some intangible concept? Why even work at Zilia? Why doesn't he just sit at home, figure out what companies to invest in and make his money that way? What's even the point in working a real job, getting a pathetic pay when you can just take the money you have, determine where to spend it, and get triple back? All just sitting on your wings at home, researching? He was so wrapped up in his excited high that he completely forgot he was going to meet Tilik at Queen's. After quickly and haphazardly putting on his nicer clothes, he got to the place only a few minutes late. Tilik was there by the guide, no doubt having been waiting for him. As soon as he strode up, Tilik's wings stiffned out some. No doubt he must've seen the numbers as well. "I can see your wings, Ghen." Tilik began with an excited chuckle. "Made some serious credits?" Ghen let out an incredulous scoff, struggling to find the words for a moment. "Incredible. All I'm going to say." "Likewise." Tilik chortled some before nodding to the table guide. "All here. Table please?" "Right this way, sir." The guide said politely. It was a short walk, travelling between round tables. The vast majority were populated by zazk, but Ghen was surprised at seeing a few humans here as well. No doubt corporate workers checking out the local food. He did spot them having bowls filled with some kind of mass. Some were brown, others white with what looks to be black specks on them. They arrived at their table. A rather nice one, affording a view out the windows into the busy colony streets. Once Tilik and Ghen settled in, the guide handed out the menus. "May I suggest our rather popular option for tonight?" The guide began. "Human ice-cream. Ingredients sourced from Earth itself. Very cold, but incredibly sweet, and coming in many flavors. The most popular amongst us is called vanilla-bean. The vanilla itself soaks in the cream for much of the process, and then the innards sprinkled on top of it near the end. Rumor has it that the Queen herself has demanded personal shipments of such a treat straight from the home of vanilla, an island on Earth named Madagascar." Ghen didn't even spare a single thought. "Vanilla bean ice cream then, please." "Same." Tilik seconded when the guide glanced to him. With a slight bow, the guide proceeded to ferry their orders to the kitchen. Thankfully it was just a short wait before the guide returned, carrying a large plate containing bowls of ice cream. Ghen could feel the saliva on his mandibles as the bowl was placed before them. He could just feel the cold air around that glistening mass of sugary goodness. The white snow decorated with the black dots of vanilla bean. Once the guide left them, Tilik and Ghen both dived in at the same time. As soon as the ice cream entered his mouth, touched his tongue, he exploded in incomprehensible bliss. The sweetness, the smooth and creamy mass, even the taste of vanilla he wasn't sure about was just absolutely delightful. It was so overwhelming that his entire body limped, slumping in his seat as he was forced to ride on the surging tide of joy and happiness sweeping over him. Tilik was no different. He too was taken completely by the effects of the ice cream, his wings fluttering some against the seat. Ghen could hear some noise. It was the humans they passed by. They were chuckling, grinning, and glancing over at them discreetly. Unlike the two zazk, the humans seemingly just enjoyed the ice cream as if it was just another nice dessert to them. Or perhaps they couldn't allow themselves to succumb to the high? And as soon as the wave of indescribable bliss and happiness subsided, Ghen knew. He just knew. This was the life. He wanted this. The ice cream was just the beginning. So many things denied because he didn't have the credits, or worse, not the blood. Because he was just a drone in the great Collective, even if he had the credits, he wasn't allowed because of what caste he was born in. That fire that sparked in him when he saw Tilik's new car? It exploded into a raging firestorm. And when looking into Tilik's eyes, Ghen could see the same. He was on the same page as Ghen was. Both of them were sold. They have the credits. And the humans? If you can pay for it, they'll never discriminate. All they cared about is if you have the money. And by the Queen, Ghen and Tilik will endeavor to amass as much credits as physically possible. The rest of the night faded into a blur. A blur that evokes only one thing. Bliss. It was only when he walked through the door of his pathetic hut that Ghen's mind snapped back to focus. His mandibles felt sticky. And he felt a weight in his stomach. How much ice cream did he eat? Whatever it was, he ate such volume that the lower-section of his throax extended and rounded out, visible even under his shirt. He felt something odd in his pocket. It was a receipt. 43,000 credits for ten bowls of vanilla bean ice cream. Was that ten bowls for both of them? Or individually? Ghen didn't care. He's good for it. Returning back to his calculator, he acted upon the decision that he had made at that eatery. He's acquiring as many books about investing and stock trading as he could find, frequent and study all the discussions and arguments presented by other like-minded individuals such as he, all to ensure he can live the good life. And he had a very good feeling Tilik was doing the exact same thing. Well, first, the gurgling in his stomach, as well as the feeling of something rising demanded his attention. Looks like he'll need to take the night off to let his stomach get back to normal. Three Years Later. Ghen looked out beyond the horizon, seeing the colony that he grew up in. On the far side was where his old house was. With only a simple robe on, made from the finest silk from Earth's nation-state of China, he relaxed in his seat. It was a long road. Stockpiling credits from pre-existing investments and from subsequent pays, he and Tilik made it. From having only half a million in assets and cash, now transformed to over eight-hundred million. And now, his call contracts on American Interstellar? They've just announced a breakthrough in their next generation of warp drives, reducing the speed coefficient even further, resulting in far faster travel. And with that, their stock price climbed sharply. Another hundred million credits in the bank. Soon, very soon, he and Tilik are about to become the galaxy's first zazk billionares. But that's not enough. There are many humans who are billionares. Only those he can count on one hand are considered trillionares. He's going to break into that circle. He and Tilik. Looking beyond the colony, he saw the abandoned building of the workplace he transferred to when the humans arrived. Turns out, the reason for such a high demand was that the humans also slipped in sugar to the tap water. As soon as that broke, many influential royal servants demanded investigations and outright banning of Terran Galactic Company's influence over the former government division. Zilia's stock price plummeted. But thanks to an advance tip from his human coordinator, Dylan, he and Tilik made a put contract. And that's where they struck gold, as the human saying goes. Dylan warned that if they were citizens of the United Nations, they'd be investigated and convicted for insider trading. But, since they weren't, and the Collective were only just introduced to capitalism, there's no risk at all. Now the colony is going through a withdrawal phase, Zilia has been dissolved and reformed back as a government division and are currently at work re-establishing the standard, plain water delivery. "Well, shit." Tilik muttered as he walked up to Ghen's side, taking well to human speech. "Looks like you win. American Interstellar's announcement really was a good thing. There goes a million credits. Ah well, the Royal Shipyards will make it back for me soon." "Oh? Did they just go corporate?" Ghen asked curiously, glancing to Tilik. "Hell yeah they did." Tilik chuckled, sitting down. "Queen and her retard servants fought it hard, but Royal Shipyards is now officially a human-style corporation. And, to a surprise to all the xenophobes in the galaxy, they're already being offered contracts for ship production. That'll raise the stock price pretty good." "What's that human word...?" Ghen muttered, already having a reply in mind. "Dick? Yeah, calls or suck my dick, Tilik." Tilik roared in laughter. "Already made them. Forty credits a share by this day next month." "I have half a mind to go thirty." Ghen chuckled. "Either way, until then, I heard from Dylan that he knows a guy who knows several prime human women who happen to be into zazk." "You're interested in women?" Tilik said as his wings fluttered. "With how often you tell me to suck you off, I'd have thought differently." "Oh, I always thought it was you who was into men." Ghen responded dryly. "Just wanted to be a good friend, you know? Considering how you never seem to make it past, Hey sweet thing, I'm rich you know." "Oh, go fuck yourself." Tilik countered with a little laugh. After he stopped, wings stiffened, he looked to Ghen. "So, know any royal servants we can put the squeeze on for more revenue streams?" "I got just the one." Ghen nodded, sitting up. "Fzik. He's been fighting to control the ice cream trade. Worried it's a corrupting influence. Got done talking with the human CEO of Nestle earlier. If we clear the way, he'll know how to squeeze a little more gains in stock price when he makes the announcement." Tilik's wings stiffened even more, signaling his approval. "Alright, time to throw some credits around, yeah?" AN: Sorry for the period of no updates. College is starting up, lots of stuff to clear and work out. Not sure why but I just got a bug up my butt about incorporating money and the stock market into a short. Here it is. Sorry if it seems abrupt, character limit fast approaching. Let me know how you guys think about it!
Where’s the best place to live in light of collapse?
Ok we are 323 comments in on the collapse post and 98% didn’t bother to make even a slightly thoughtful answer. So... i guess i will be the change i want to see in the world First off, If you are the fatalistic nihlistic type you can just go where you think it will be nice to die, maybe that is with friends and family, maybe it is on a beach in mexico, or feeding your body to the last polar bear. For everyone else that still has the instinct and drive for self-preservation….
What are the best places to be leading up to or during collapse?
First let's question the question.
What difference does it make to know "What are the best places to be leading up to or during collapse"? The answer is dependent upon your own personal situation. Your personal situation has limiting factors.
Imagine you are a goat herder in Somalia during a multi year drought and there is no grass for feeding your animals. You have to sell them for dirt cheap because everyone else is also trying to sell off everything they can to get money thus depressing the goat prices further. Now the price of food is skyrocketing because there is no grass and the farmers crops failed, everyone is trying to buy up a hoard of food because everyone knows it is going to be a hard year. You manage to get the equivalent of $120USD in cash after selling practically everything you own but held onto one breeding pair of your healthiest goats you plan to use to regain a livelihood after the drought is over.
Imagine you are a billionaire with a fueled up superyacht, a helicopter, and a private plane. You have practically unlimited money, friends who are rich and connected in other countries, and a whole slew of passports, visas, and secondary citizenships, all else failing you can buy citizenships in most countries for less than $2million investment and pay a teams of specialists to expedite the process.
Your personal Limiting Factors constrain you usually somewhere between those extremes, everyone has different options. If we assume you are asking the question "What are the best places to be leading up to or during collapse" because you want to have the best standard of living available for as long as possible or simply survive the incoming population bottleneck, then the practical question becomes ...
"What are the best places to be, leading up to or during collapse, that i can get to, and establish myself in such a way that I can maintain the best standard of living possible for as long as I can or simply increase my probability of surviving the incoming population bottleneck."
It is important to ask this question to constrain the search space to the possible. It makes fuck-all difference if a somali goat herder knows about the ToP SeCret ElitE mULtibiLLioNaIre New ZEaLand sOUth IsLaNd ReDoUbt BuNkeR CoMmUnITy It is not going to help him and should not be in the search space as a survival strategy. TL:DR Constrain your search space to what is realistically achievable for you.
Start with your baseline probability of survival and increase it.
Don't let a search for "best place" stop you from achieving "good enough place" or "better than where i was previously place".
You are just trying to be an early adopter of increasing your survival probability stats before the non collapse-pilled masses.
Think of surviving bottlenecks like surviving a charging bear attack, you don't need to be able to outrun the bear, you only need to be able to outrun the slowest people in the group up to the point the bear's appetite is satiated.
What are the best places to be, leading up to or during collapse, that i can get to, and establish myself in such a way that I can maintain the best standard of living possible for as long as I can or simply increase my probability of surviving the incoming population bottleneck."
Ok now lets question the new question some more...
In order to answer this we need to untangle some of the subjective and objective elements. The objective elements of human survival are well known.
Optimizing location is a series of subjective trade-offs. There is no perfect place, they all have advantages and disadvantages. So you must decide your personal preference of which goods and bads you most desire and what your scenario expectations are of the future. Your personal preferences and collapse expectations mean the “best area” is specific to you. What you can achieve and what do you desire, find the overlap between the two, then do research to find the place that gives you the most goods with the least bads and increases your probability of survival and standard of living. One of the best strategies is to adapt yourself to your local circumstances to take advantage of the advantages, and plan ahead to mitigate the disadvantages, it is really all most people can do for themselves. Do you like not living in unbearable heat, maybe moving to greenland is NOT a better option than just buying 400watts of solar panels and attaching it to a small efficient AC that keeps one room of your house cool even during summer electricity blackouts. Most problems have multiple solutions, it is worth it to take time and think about things from an economic perspective and different time horizon perspectives. Increasing your optionality is better than narrowing it when it comes to survival, rather than the binary thinking, of “go way out into the northern mountains, farm and live in a bunker” versus “be a full time yuppie and ignore collapse issues”. Getting 2 acres you can put a cheap used rv camper on and go do permaculture on during weekends, near enough your place of employment/where you live, is probably a better plan. Indeed the small dacha’s and country gardens helped many people survive the collapse of the USSR. They would spend weekends and haul potatoes/veggies back to the city with them on the bus. Hedge your bets to cover the most scenarios including the most likely scenarios like losing your job or getting in a car accident. Survival and thriving always has and always will involve dynamic adaptation. Here is a very short list of some of potential trade-offs that you may need to think about and some brief descriptions of how they can affect things. This is NOT meant to be a systematic or exhaustive analysis, this is just me stream-of-conscious flowing on strong coffee to help others start thinking about it for themselves. There are unlimited variables
Hot versus cold
A lot of people in the forum think they it is somehow optimal for them to move to canada or greenland. Someone in eastern kansas moving to canada is not necessary, remember even in RCP8.5 business as usual scenario kansas by the end of the century still won’t be as hot as texas is currently. If there are already people living in hotter dryer areas now, then it doesn’t make a lot of sense to pack up your shit and move to the arctic, just enjoy the longer summers. At least base it on something scientific like the expectation of when that area will cross the 35C wetbulb survivability threshold, so if you live in Bandar Mahshahr then yes move somewhere else now is time.
Do you have children?
Moving somewhere may not be needed if you can live out your expected natural lifespan before things get too bad, especially with the climate. If you have children you may want to move to account for the expectations during their future lifetimes.
Wet versus dry
Wet places usually have more disease and insect loads for people and crops. In dry places it is harder to raise food, net primary productivity is usually lower, except where irrigation is available but there are usually less pests including plant fungal diseases like powdery mildew. There are Europeans living in certain parts of africa whom can only inhabit those areas currently because of antimalarial drugs, pesticides and mosquito nets. The native populations are full of people heterozygous for sickle cell which gives them resistance/immunity to the malaria, just a long view consideration.
Seasonality of rainfall
if you get all your rainfall in the summer you usually live in a region where the muggy wetbulb temps are higher and will be getting higher. You are more likely to get floods during the growing season. If you get rainfall mainly in the winter like mediteranean climates you will usually have dry summers with low humidity so deadly wetbulb temps should not be a problem but maintaining summer vegetables requires irrigation. If using rainfed agriculture you will have different crop choices, which areas grow the types of food you like?
Sunny versus overcast
Sunny areas are great for some dark skinned people and needed for vitamin D production in post collapse scenarios unless you have a good dietary source, black people in dim areas get Vitamin D deficiency diseases like rickets and have higher mortality in a hard enough crash. Gecko skinned gingers thrive better in overcast areas. Lots of people currently exist in environments they are biologically maladapted to, they are only able to live there because of modern fortified foods/supplements and medical care. Bright sunlight destroys folate (needed for reproduction) in pale people and causes skin cancer. Some people get S.A.D. and commit suicide in the gloomy winters of the pacific northwest USA. Just because a place is good in lots of other ways, you should not consider it if it will leave suicidal.
Growing season, long versus short
Long growing season usually means more heat for longer, more times to grow crops but usually less optimal conditions. Short seasons means you have to compress a lot more work in a shorter amount of time. It also means trees grow slower and growing your own fuel supply takes more land footprint while you simultaneously need more heating fuel. Places like iowa have moderate/short growing season but the high lattitude makes for long daylength which increases productivity during the moderate/short growing season. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer and soils highly fertile but it is practically one giant biocide saturated monoculture of death. It doesn’t matter if the you live in a fecund area if your future children die of bluebaby syndrome from the nitrate pollution in the well-water or end up mentally retarded from the chlorpyrifos spray drift bioaccumulating and destroying neural development in utero.
Let's be real here, most of you need to have employment to live, even as things crumble in a slow crash the vast majority will be dependent on employment and purchasing in the marketplace that which they need for subsistence. Cities are almost always better for employment. Keep in mind recently and historically, even prior to the industrial revolution, people were more often moving to cities to escape collapse scenarios in real life. You can look at africa and the middle east today. The reason is the city with its dense network effects can command food from a diversity of sources and the economics incentivize shipping surplus to cities. In times where the economics don't incentivize it governments usually seize it and send it to the cities. There is lots of historical precedent showing this, despite the general ruralist zeitgiest among collapsniks thinking that they need a homestead in the country. Employment or entitlements has been and will be the primary way people meet subsistence needs even in most collapse scenarios. Even in 3rd world areas that are experiencing famines, war, full infrastructure breakdown and conditions that are equivalent to 1st worlder visions of total collapse, people still wake up, go to work pulling weeds for the local land baron, get paid and then go buy a bowl of millet from the store.
High versus low wages.
some areas have low wages but this can come with benefits like low cost of living and people being pre-adapted to living through cooperative social behaviors and "ghetto rigging" improvisation. Last time i was in some shithole parts of arkansas i noticed just about every rural person had a decent sized garden, more than any other state i've been to. They feel compelled to share unlike some high-income places where people are clawing for money to pay rents or status seeking in a dog eat dog competitive environment. I have lived in quite a few homeless encampments and one thing that surprises people is how everyone gives away all surplus among each other, this is a paleolithic variance smoothing strategy, it is supernaturally effective and feels natural once you do it. I see it re-evolve over and over in poor people.
Education levels and sociability of the population
Is the area culturally acceptable to you? Are you acceptable to the people of the area?
There are places that may have all sorts of good qualities but they are filled with ignorant racist meth head bible belt sociopaths who will torment you out of sheer boredom. Some places get full of these people and they reinforce the ignorance and shittiness into a dominant culture that you will be fighting against if you move there. When moving to a place where you are an outsider and the community is hostile to allowing assimilation that can reduce your survival odds. See various historical genocides.
Distance from food sources
Being close to a food source like right on a farm you grow on is great but if you have crop failure you may have no draw to bring in the food. Distance should be measured multiple ways including the strength and reliability of the transportation networks and the energetic distance for transport in energy descent scenarios. Think of the number of connections in the network you can draw from. In a city there are many stores each store sourcing from thousands of farmers, if a few farmers or stores fail there are still plenty of options. Some small rural towns depopulate once the single local walmart closes. Do you trust the local weather and your own potential self sufficiency more than markets/entitlements and transport resilience? Across what scenarios and time spans?
Legal rights and entitlements availability
Solid legal rights and strong property law is great if you are part of the ownership class but when you are dispossessed, lack of legal enforcement can give you a higher standard of living because you can build shelter and do side hustles things without having "the man" come slap you down. In a place like western Europe you may have recourse to welfare entitlements and unemployment insurance payments to buy food in financial crashes and slow crash scenarios, in some countries things like this are not available, this is more important than most people think. Indeed most recent famines occur where food is present but people just have no way to buy it because they are brokeAF, you don't see rich people in those areas starving.
Water flows towards money. Just because there is a stream nearby doesn't mean you will be able to take water from it, you may need water rights while government is still able to enforce such edicts. Alternatively you may have impeccable senior water rights but the government enforcement is defunded and someone with zero water rights is upstream from you sucking the entire creek dry during a crash. Rainfall vs irrigation. rainfall allows a form of independence but having reliable irrigation can smooth out catastrophic variance in rain shortfalls. Don’t forget irrigation management was a major factor in the formation of early oppressive states.
Even prior to the industrial revolution, in cities that had Sea Ports, the population in those cities had higher survival rates than those living in the countryside during famines. Transportation is critical. More transportation modes plane, train, automobile, bikepaths, all different roads, rails, canals, rivers etc. These transports allow goods to flow, which generally helps satisfy regional shortages. Some people judge the main threat to be people taking what they have, usually it is governments doing the taking in the historical record but many are concerned with mythical hordes. If you subscribe to this paranoia about people robbing your homestead you may enjoy being as minimally connected as possible to the transport system. You must determine based on your own preferences and expectations. Good transport is a double edged sword, it means food/resources can also be shipped out of your area towards money/powerful people, remember ownership norms and enforcement rarely disappear during collapse-like periods, indeed the ownership class still sends supplies to the highest bidder which may not be you, see Irish Gorta Mor for example.
In places like london way back when they still burned wood as cooking and heating fuel there were estates just outside the city that were highly organized coppice producers that fueled the city. Wood is heavy and only so much could be carried in a cartload considering they relied on animal traction. There was a distance where bringing the wood to london to sell would not make you any money even despite you getting wood for free because the cost of the journey feeding yourself and animal took the entire value of the wood. These effects are worth thinking about across different transport scenarios. Assets become stranded and likewise things can become uneconomical to ship to you when you need things produced in the city. The wood producing estates outside london were well off financially and smaller estate size could provide higher income than the much more distant estates that were an order of magnitude larger. Transport matters, markets and trade continue to exist in practically every collapse and even in supermax prisons, expect to use markets as a survival strategy, it is more likely than you living some isolated mountain man scenario.
(the older a soil is geologically X how much rainfall it gets) is what generally determines how fertile it is. The best soils are those that are relatively new and have been subjected to just enough rainfall to match the evapotranspiration rate, this minimizes nutrients leaching out, these are the mollisols/chernozems of the prairies. Because the water is just-enough in those zones they are also right at the edge where they can have major droughts with even slightly less rainfall. Wetter areas generally have less inherent soil fertility because of more leaching of nutrients but have more room for rainfall variability without plants meeting water deficiency.
your social ties family friends locations
Having a positive social environment with people you love while just getting by, is better than doing well financially and being socially isolated, for most people. Don’t abandon good family and friends if you can avoid it, it is usually not worth it. “Social capital” has always been a key to human flourishing. Many people in the collapse of the USSR survived on “blat”, not by relocating. A real world social network for altruistic reciprocity is a survival tool.
Proximity to imperialist countries with militaries that may want/need your resources for themselves or their people
Places like ukraine, some of the best farmland in the world, a country may seem optimal in many ways but historically this advantage was noted by outsiders and it has been at the crossroads of empires which means they suffered tremendously in war. The devastation of war and imperialism negated much of the natural benefits of the area when it comes to survival rates. This is something to consider. In parts of africa there is more conflict in abundant zones with more food, outside of famine zones because paramilitaries are supported from the land there and controlling the food supply is used as weapon of political power. Concentration of resources can make areas more dangerous, it makes attacking them economical.
There aren’t a ton of guides and write-ups out yet, so I figure I’ll do one. DISCLAIMERS This shit is long as fuck. I’m a player of passable skill at best, but I found myself in RNG heaven for most of this, so I went for it. I completed 6.2 today, and I wanted to go ahead and just delve into my opinion on the content, my teams, revives used, and general strategy as far as paths go. I’ll keep a running total of revives used. Team Revives will be counted as 5 revives 6.2.1: Power’s Purpose Global: Lifecycle Team: 4/55 Captain Sparkles, 3/45 Nick Fury, 4/55 Gwenpool, 4/55 Angela, 6 star Hawkeye The global node here is superb for Sparkles since you need to use a lot of heavy attacks to keep her in binary ignition. I wasn’t initially planning to do a run, I was honestly just testing Sparkles against the 6.2 health pools. I went for the Aggression: Fury Path, and after I killed Yondu, I realized I just had two fights left to clear the map. I used Hawkeye to clear Dormammu, and then cleared the Sym Supreme Boss with the full team. Fair warning, while not incredibly complex, this boss does a LOT of damage when he nullifies buffs and he gains a lot of power when he nullifies buffs. Took 1 revive because I thought I could kill the Dormammu mini with Captain Marvel and failed spectacularly. Cumulative Revives: 1 6.2.2: Severed Global: Backblast Team: 3/45 Ghost, 4/55 Captain Sparkles, 3/45 Nick Fury, 4/55 Angela, 4/55 Gwenpool Another great global for Sparkles. The doubled crit damage was fantastic. Again, I went into this wanting to test Ghost, and wound up just doing the whole path. Ghost died, because I suck without wasp. I took the right side to Punisher 2099 and the southern route with Aggression Regen. Captain Marvel straight up obliterated this. The double crit damage flows fantastically for her. About the time I killed Goldpool, I realized that I ought to try the Sinister Boss and loaded full rainbow boosts. I had absolutely zero expectations for this fight. I’d seen plenty of people get absolutely destroyed by this dude, and he’s a very bullshit fight. I went for it, and only landed 27 hits before I died to incinerate. I got lucky that he didn’t decide to throw specials, and after 27 hits... I’d dealt 239,745 damage. I loaded up a revive and went again. This time I only landed 19 hits. Fortunately, a fully boosted Sparkles at 4/55 can kill Mr Sinister in 46 hits. I was thoroughly shocked, and I was bolstered by the 9 second indestructible, but holy mother of god, that’s 356,558 damage in 46 hits. Cumulative Revives: 2 6.2.3: Headstrong Global: Icarus Team: 4/55 Captain Sparkles, 3/45 Nick Fury, 4/55 Gwenpool, 6 star Hawkeye, 4/55 Ghost Rider I really didn’t think that Act 6 could get any more fun than 6.2.2, but boy was I fucking wrong. Icarus is fantastic! Other champions benefit a bit more from this node, but Sparkles took it pretty damn well. This node focuses on heavies again, and Sparkles plays pretty well into that. Distinction Domino and her flaming friends are by far the best for this chapter, and specifically the boss, since he has limber. Here is where I committed to clearing 6.2. I took the right side through Ant-Man, fully through the un-noded path. I used Sparkles as my path clearer with Hawkeye taking the Dr. Strange and Symbiote Supreme matchups since I suck against them without power control. The boss isn’t bad at all with a full team devoted to him, but Sparkles will run out of binary ignition once Omega’s limber has fully removed your stun duration. One revive to get the boss since I’m a mug and didn’t think about Omega being averse to bleed. I took bleeders. Facepalm Cumulative Revives: 3 6.2.4: Criminal Elements Global: Destructive Feedback Team: 4/55 Sparkles, 3/45 Nick Fury, 4/55 Gwenpool, 4/55 Angela, 3/45 Ghost This quest made me question my choice to do this Chapter. I hate the destructive feedback node with a passion. It took SEVERAL tries before I got comfortable playing this node. A better player than me could probably do well against this, but I struggled. A lot. I took the Yellowjacket path, with the turn down the DPX path, and down to Rulk. I had a lot of difficulty taking this path with Sparkles since I often ran low on Energy Charges. Gwenpool did a solid job, and Angela filled in as necessary. War Machine was a dickhead and cost me a revive, but that’s probably because I got too greedy with Sparkles and thought I could kill him, and he downed me with an SP3. The Hood miniboss has Bane, but it’s a pretty weak Bane if you’re running 4/55s and 5/65s. Kingpin isn’t bad, and you can use his empowered immunity to push him past his power threshold to create openings. It’s generally advisable to play Kingpin stun immune anyways, so he was simple enough. Wound up using Nick Fury for this kill, and it was fairly easy. Cumulative Revives: 4 6.2.5: Mistrust Global: Do Not Go Gentle Team: 4/55 Sparkles, 3/45 Nick Fury, 4/55 Angela, 3/45 Magik, 1/25 Heimdall The global for this one is definitely one of the more challenging ones to get used to. The others could be blitzed down in some way or another, but this one needs to be taken slowly, or you’ll take a fat load of damage at the end when you try to kill the defender. You need to be adept at intercepting and you would be advised to use a lot of heavies whenever possible. For this one, I took the Hela path, and it was pretty simple minus Gwenpool. She’s a bitch. You can’t keep her from annihilating you with an SP3 as far as I can tell. Colossus is stun immune and requires slick intercepting to keep the node under control, but otherwise, it was pure nuclear annihilation with Sparkles again. BOSS DISCLAIMER This boss is a cash grab, and I do not suggest going in with buff heavy champs, or anything shy of at least 250-400 units, because unless you’re just rather lucky, or you have Cap IW and a good bit of luck, you’re going to be absolutely dicked over by this fight. Your champs take damage reduction and AAR unless you have all your teammates alive. This took two team revives. Fuck Mordo. Used full boosts again here Cumulative Revives: 14 6.2.6: Round 2 Global: None Team: 4/55 Sparkles, 3/45 Nick Fury, 3/45 Iceman, 3/45 Hood, 4/55 Angela At this point, I could smell those rewards, so I loaded up full boosts and went in. I took the fully unlinked path, and used Sparkles to clear everything but Magik and Hype. For Hype, I used Iceman, and for Magik I used Fury. THE BOSS Wow. Just wow. First off, I’d like to kindly toss out a big F-U to whoever thought that this Champion was a good idea, because he was SO much worse than the Collector. I’d like to say though, The Hood is absolutely beautiful for this fight. I had people tell me “hey, you can’t do that with Hood you absolute mug. Rank 3 Hood? Pshhh, boosts don’t even matter, you’re going to get absolutely annihilated.” I believed them until I saw a few videos of people using Hood I boosted at 4/55 and 6r1, so I used those full rainbow boosts and went for it. The first phase is not terrible, I used Captain Marvel to just quick nuke as much damage as possible to get the regen at the start instead of the unstoppable, and then I went in with Hood. I didn’t really notice the phases at all, quite like with Seatin’s Sym Supreme fight, simply because there’s absolutely no sense in parrying this bastard. He deals way too much block damage, but his aggressive nature makes it really easy to intercept him a lot. The other really great part about Hood is that he regenerates when stagger is used or expires, so he mitigated a lot of the degen damage from staggering the buffs in the 3rd phase. His staggers ALSO remove all buffs, so you can actually lower his persistent charge count as necessary. I will be honest though, I’m a scrub, and it took about 10 revives to get through the final 10%. Overall, I hate this Champion, but it was well worth it. Cumulative Revives: 24 Final Thoughts: I really felt the 4 star ban here. The lack of Wasp made my Ghost less useful than normal, and that’s obviously pretty annoying. I really identify with KT1’s sentiment on this chapter. The global nodes are brilliant, they force you to play slightly differently, and it’s an absolute blast to play most of these nodes once you’re in them. It takes a player of at least passable skill to get this done, and it’s pretty fun. However, there’s some bullshit in here. Whoever got ahold of this chapter after the Globals were put in is an asshole. While I was able to manage Sinister fairly easily, that’s not indicative of most of the community. That fight is far too niche, and, while I’m blessed with the champion that fits that niche the best, it’s absolute horseshit that everyone else either has to unit it down, or wait. Mordo is also incredibly niche. You need Cap IW or She Hulk to have any amount of success easily, and I feel that the node combos are a bit overboard. The Champion also feels extremely niche, but there are a decent handful of counters, some of which are older champs. Once I was through, I really considered the Story boss fights that have been in this game. Starting at Maestro, a lot of people felt that Arc Overload was BS, but I think he’s aged nicely as a tough but manageable fight for the content. The Collector is still the most BS fight anyone’s ever seen. It hasn’t aged well in my opinion. Ultron in 5.4.6 is a fun, albeit difficult fight, but it offers numerous counters. It’s aged fairly well, and is manageable. 6.1.5 Crossbones is niche, but bleed immunity or very good Quaking is an option, so I think that fight will age well. Mr. Sinister will not age well. Mordo will not age well. Those fights felt extremely cash grabby and gave the vibe that Kabam would like it if you quit complaining and bought Cavalier crystals. It’s too early for me to tell how The Champion will age. It’s a very difficult fight, but the slow Debuff is becoming more prevalent with time. Overall, this quest is fun, but again, the 4 star ban is bullshit. I’ve done half of Act 6 and still had great usage with 2/35s and 3/45s. That’s the equivalent of 4 stars, and with boosts, they could be of use. It’s still too difficult to obtain specific champs (Wasp, Sym Supreme, and She-Hulk for me) and that’s frustrating. The rewards also feel lacking considering the difficulty. We still don’t have 6 star specific resources beyond the few T5CC fragment crystals, which still don’t even add up to a single T5CC. There’s no 5 star Generic Gem, there’s very little T2A in the Completion of either chapter, and none of it feels super special beyond the 6 star shards. Obviously judging the Act 6 rewards will be difficult until we see the full rewards for completion and exploration, but I definitely feel that the chapters could have had better stuff.
Tons of stuff happening this week, so let’s take a look and see what’s fun. Go out and play now before we get hit with 98 degrees and 100% humidity in a few weeks. There’s another list of all the regular stuff that happens every week, so don’t forget to check for all your karaokes, trivias, and so on. There are also links to all of Tally’s theater options, both stage and independent cinema (from fancy to cult). HAPPENING THIS WEEK: LGBTQ+ Pride Week. There are events all week, so just check out the list below and go do the gay stuff. HAPPENING THIS WEEK: 2019 Chain of Parks Art Festival. “Expect to have a first-class, fun-filled outdoor cultural experience at the Chain of Parks Art Festival! View amazing, original and one-of-a-kind works of art in a delightful Southern outdoor setting. Enjoy a wide variety of live entertainment, a host of local food trucks and vendors, and libations served enthusiastically at the W XYZ Bar by Aloft. Saturday Night Concert from 5 PM - 7 PM in the Center Court. Festival runs Saturday and Sunday in the Downtown parks.” HAPPENING THIS WEEK: Tallahassee Jazz and Blues Festival. “Join the Tallahassee Museum for one of the region’s best two-day jazz, swing, and rhythm and blues music festivals! Dance, relax and enjoy the music, or take part in fun activities on the Big Bend Farm. The Tallahassee Museum outdoor stage area is truly the most gorgeous venue in town, and one of the few places fans can bring their families to hear live music. Plenty of tasty treats and frosty beverages will be available at the cafe and cash bar! Guests are welcome to bring camp chairs and blankets.” Check here for the full schedule. Starts at 11am both Saturday and Sunday. TUESDAY, 4/23
St. Stephen Lutheran: Pridefest Interfaith Service: There's a Place in Faith for You! “Join Tallahassee's open and affirming faith-based congregations for an interfaith service leading up to the kickoff of Tallahassee PRIDEFEST's Pride in the Plaza event!” 7pm-8:30pm
Waterworks: Tallahassee’s Lake Elberta Salon. “It’s the fourth best birding location in Leon County and it’s a quarter mile from The Doak on Lake Bradford Rd. Learn how Apalachee Audubon has worked to transform this urban oasis, what they have planned for the future, and how you can take part in this exciting project to make Tallahassee a more hospitable place for people and birds.” 7:35pm
The Bark: The Jerome Stern Distinguished Writers Series Award Readings. “Please join us in celebrating this year's FSU creative writing award winners.” 8pm
Blue Tavern: Choro Party: Celebrate Pix's Birthday! “April 23 is International Day of Choro, and the birthday of one of the primary inventors of Choro, Pixinguinha (pronounced Peesh-in-geen-ya). Come celebrate with Tallahassee's own choro ensemble, As Saudades!” 8pm/$2/all ages
The Wilbury: CDU Presents: Avey Tare w/ Geologist (Animal Collective). 8:30pm/$14 GP/18+
Blue Tavern: Ooops! A Story Slam. “Ooops! You hit on your boss' wife? Spilled coffee on the bride? Went in for that first delicious kiss and...burped? Craft a 5-7 minute spoken word story that relates to the theme in some way, put your name in the hat, and, if you're called...take the stage to wow your friends! Stories can be sad, funny, weird, inspiring, or just plain embarrassing. Ah, but with prizes for the top three winning tellers! And bragging rights for all!” 7pm/free
The Wilbury: CDU Presents: Local Covers at The Wilbury. “Take part in the annual end of the year Club Downunder cover show! Come watch your favorite Tallahassee residents pay homage to great bands of the past and present! Every year Club Downunder hosts this show for local musicians to pay homage to the songs of their favorite artists. Here are the cover bands that will be performing: Bobby D as Bob Dylan. Gemstone Switchblades as Lil Peep. Beza Alford as Frank Ocean. Chixie Dix as Dixie Chicks. Banderson .Paak as Anderson .Paak. Alabama Snakes as Alabama Shakes. Trash Cat as Arctic Monkeys. The Bray as The Fray.” 7:30pm/$5 GP/18+
Globe Auditorium: Wednesday Night Live. “Live from Tallahassee - it's Wednesday night! Free comedy variety show. Live sketches - digital shorts - weekday update - standup – music. Host: Emma Hartsfield (of No Bears Allowed). Musical guest: Emily Gabriel.” 8pm
Blue Tavern: Late Show with David Cobb. 8:30pm/$2
FSU Innovation Hub: VR BASH. “This event is open to everyone - FSU, FAMU, TCC, Tallahassee, Leon County, all ages, all abilities. Hang out with tech enthusiasts from FSU and the Tally community - refreshments provided! Mess around with Rift, Vive, Mixed Reality, Hololens and our NEW Magic Leap headsets! Bring your notebook and geek out with some basic VR development skills! The Innovation Hub is in the Shores Bldg at 142 Collegiate Loop. Nearby parking available! Sponsored by the FSU Innovators! REGISTER @ www.innovation.fsu.edu/vrbash” 5:30pm
Backwoods Bistro: Your Scumbag Neighbors. 7pm
Challenger Learning Center: Project Remote: Where the Road Ends. 7pm
926 Bar & Grill: Tallahassee PRIDEFEST 2019: Women Rock. “Join us for this exciting night of entertainment for and by women in our community!” 7pm/$5
The Wilbury: Okilly Dokilly w/ Bear Ghost, Unico & Feedlot. ”Okilly Dokilly is a metalcore band from Phoenix, Arizona that plays "Nedal" music; a subgenre of metal music themed around the animated character Ned Flanders from the television series The Simpsons.” 8pm/$16
Blue Tavern: Joshua Rivers & JRive Jazz Quartet. 8pm/$2/all ages
The Moon: Celebration of Women & Girls. “The Celebration of Women & Girls is a unique event, a collaboration between PACE Center for Girls, Leon and The Oasis Center for Women & Girls, that showcases female artistic talent of all ages. Dinner and show, silent auction, and cash bar make the party one not to be missed. Proceeds benefit both PACE and Oasis Center programming.” 5pm/$40
Fairgrounds: 5th Annual Tallahassee RODEO. “Get Ready for Family fun RODEO action plus, Food vendors, Merchandise vendors, Beer Tents, calf scramble, and much more.” 5:30pm/$18
Railroad Square: Railroad Square Pride. “The celebration in the square will host four public events: “Bongos and Bubbles”, “Pride Poetry and Prose”, “Karaoke Pride” and ending with a viewing of “The Rocky Horror Picture Show”. There will also be a private event for the Tallahassee Pridefest Sponsors. Guests attending “Railroad Square Pride” will be given a Railroad Square “Passport” requiring four ticket stamps for validation. Stamps can be obtained in any combination of event participation or by visiting galleries or merchants within the park. A completed Passport makes the guest eligible to participate in the Raffle, which will be announced during “Karaoke Pride”. Here is the schedule.” 6pm-Midnight or later
Oyster City Brewing Company in Apalach: 5th Annual Oyster City Downtown Hoedown. “Yeehaw! It’s that time of the year again for the annual Downtown Hoedown street party in front of the brewery! For the last few years this has been a great musical gathering to get everyone hyped up for the 2019 SGI Brewfest 4th Annual on Saturday! This year Kent DuChaine returns to start things off with the blues like no one else can! Then, coastal bluegrass pioneers Dread Clampitt carry us on into the night with what is sure to be a phenomenal do not miss show!” 6pm
Civic Center: Kenny Chesney, Songs For The Saints Tour. 7pm
Ruby Diamond: An Evening with David Sedaris. 7:30pm
The Yard in RR Sq: Revival. 8pm
Blue Tavern: The Adventures of Annabelle Lyn. 8pm
Proof: Taller Trees. 8pm
Junction @ Monroe: 2x Grammy Award Winner Saunders Sermons. 8pm
Black Dog on the Square: Augur Ridge Unplugged. 8:30pm
Bird’s: Thousand Dollar Hen. 8:30pm/$5
The Wilbury: CDU Presents: Of Montreal w/ Yip Deceiver. 8:30pm/$18 GP/18+
The Bark: Cheap City, Soft Clicks, Emily Gabriel. 8:30pm/$5/all ages
Bradfordville Blues Club: Geoff Achison & The Souldiggers. 9pm
The Annex in RR Sq: PRIDE @ RRS, CCVL, & Cheap Thrills Present ROCKY HORROR LIVE. “Join PRIDE AT RAILROAD SQUARE for a nip & nightcap as the phenomenal cast of CHEAP THRILLS presents a full review of THE ROCKY HORROR PICTURE SHOW at THE ANNEX located in Railroad Square in between Gamescape and 621 Gallery! Prop bags available.” 10:30pm/$10
Tallahassee Junior Museum: Pioneer Breakfast. “Enjoy a hearty, outdoor meal at our 58th Annual Pioneer Breakfast on the 1880’s-style farmstead. This "feast"raiser features all-you-can-eat Register’s freshly grilled sausage, scrambled eggs, pancakes and real Bradley’s Country Store grits. The Museum’s Board of Trustees will serve up heaping helpings, along with coffee, juice, and milk.” 7am-11am
Railroad Sq (near the playground): EcoCitizen Day: A City Nature Challenge Event. “Home base is the Market Space, which is adjacent to the FAMU Way playground. Join us for kids activities, entertainment, and PBS KIDS' character Nature Cat. From there, you can head out to one of three locations for a bio-blitz using iNaturalist (https://www.inaturalist.org). The goal is to use iNaturalist to photograph and identify as many plant and animal (and mushroom, moss, lichen...) species as possible. This event is funded by PBS Nature. Their producers are busy getting ready for American Spring LIVE, an ambitious multi-day broadcast set to air on WFSU-TV just after EcoCitizen Day. Tune in to WFSU-TV on April 29, 30, and May 1 at 8 pm ET.” 9am-2pm
Tallahassee Nurseries: Veggie Gardening in Small Spaces. 10am
My Favorite Books: Bookstore Day. “Local children’s author, Bridget Noel Jones, will be in the store at 11am for a storytime with her children's book, The Story of the Infinipede. Through the rhyming text and brilliantly colored illustrations, this story teaches subtle lessons about being open to new things, and being friendly to new people. We hope you’ll join us for storytime, come meet Bridget, and stay for a fun coloring activity! Keep your eye out for giveaways happening all day and make sure to mention Bookstore Day to receive 20% off your cash or credit card purchase! Independent Bookstore Day is a one-day national party that takes place at indie bookstores across the country on the last Saturday in April.” 10am-6pm
Brick House: 26th Annual Downtown Crawfish Festival. “Live Music with Young Bucks formally: The King Band Tony Young and more. Jump House for the kids | Hula Hoop Contest | Corn Hole | Beads.” 11am-10pm/$10
Kleman Plaza: Tallahassee PRIDEFEST 2019: Pride in the Plaza. “This is THE premier event of Tallahassee PRIDEFEST! Come to Kleman Plaza, in the heart of downtown Tallahassee, and join us as we celebrate pride! Entertainment all afternoon on the main stage, food and vendors throughout the park, a Kids Zone, and more! With a family-friendly atmosphere, it’s free and open to everyone!” Noon-5:30pm
Paddy’s Raw Bar in Eastpoint: 2019 SGI Brewfest 4th Annual. “The SGI Brewfest is a one-day beer tasting festival to promote the appreciation of craft beer. All proceeds benefit the Franklin County Humane Society. This year's event features an even broader selection of amazing craft beers, friendly faces and furry friends. This is a very limited engagement and tickets must be purchased in advance. Tickets will not be sold at the door. Beers, beaches, and bettering the lives of animals. What's not to love? All Brewfest attendees must be 21+ including designated drivers. Children and adults under 21 years of age are not permitted at this event. This event will be held rain or shine - No Refunds.” 1pm-4pm/$40 ($15 for DDs)/21+
The Yard @ RR Sq: Slow Low Crow, Sage Monkey, The Lessers. 5pm
Fairgrounds: 5th Annual Tallahassee RODEO. “Get Ready for Family fun RODEO action plus, Food vendors, Merchandise vendors, Beer Tents, calf scramble, and much more.” 5:30pm/$18
The Moon: Purple Craze. “Purple Craze will feature a variety of live music from Southern Satisfaction, one of Tallahassee’s most popular bands. In addition to great music, you’ll taste delicious appetizers from the area’s leading senior resident chefs during the Battle of the Chef's. You’ll also have an opportunity to bid on art, cart racing passes, food, and much more during our silent and live auction. Don’t be surprised to see plenty of crazy outfits in the competition for the Best Purple Costume, and if you like to shake a leg, be sure to sign up for the Dance Competition.” 6pm
Garages on Gaines: PRIDE PROM 2019. “Get excited for Going Places Street Outreach Program's 4th annual Pride Prom! This event is for anyone who identifies as LGBTQ+ and allies. This event aims to be a safe space where everyone can express themselves authentically and celebrate their identities among friends and community. Join us in Candyland! We will be serving food and refreshments. We will have music, a photo booth, and a fierce drag show that you don't want to miss. DJ HeadphonzE will keep you movin and groovin through the night! There is no dress code! Wear whatever makes you feel great and comfortable. Going Places will also have an event the week prior to the prom for folks to come get dresses, suits, makeup, and more for FREE if anyone needs or would like an outfit to wear.” 6pm/free/all ages
The Bark: GEEK DOWN: A Night of Dance & Hip-Hop w/ the Artist & the Doctor. “Trio-Fi Media Presents the GEEK DOWN. A night of dance music and hip-hop, the GEEK DOWN showcases local DJs, beat-makers, and rappers. Delve into the Florida underground of experimental lo-fi, remix, dance and hip-hop music. The first edition of the GEEK DOWN features The Artist and The Doctor, the collaborative project between producer Dr. LaFlow and rapper Artisan P. Setting the mood for the night is DJ Ryze, one of Tallahassee's best DJs; known for his fresh mix of funk, soul, and dance. Rapper Rich, from Broward County will make a special appearance, performing cuts off his latest album titled All Things Considered.” 8pm/$5/all ages
Black Dog on the Square: The Adesh Balraj Quintet. 8pm
American Legion Hall: Red Hills Pagan Council 4th Annual Beltane Ball. Music by Crooked Shooz. “Tarot Readings by Arcane Paths, Family Friendly.” 8pm/$13/under 12 yo free
Blue Tavern: Sam Pacetti. 8pm/$5/all ages
Crum Box Gastgarden: Comedians Against Cards Against Humanity (CACAH). 8pm
The Wilbury: CDU Presents: Wicca Phase Springs Eternal w/ Smrtdeath and Fantasy Camp. 8:30pm/$15 GP/18+
Bradfordville Blues Club: John Nemeth. 9pm
Birds: Soulslaw live at Birds! feat. Neal Goree. 9pm
926 Bar & Grill: Pride After Dark - Pridefest 2019 Afterparty. “Keep the pride going with the official After Party of PRIDEFEST 2019! Join us at 926 Bar & Grill to dance the night away and celebrate another amazing week of Pridefest here in Tallahassee!! DJ Carben will be joined by some special guests to entertain you while the 926 bartenders fix your favorite libations and our amazing 926 chefs work their magic with your favorite 926 food! There will be a special show at 11:30 featuring the newly crowned Miss Tallahassee Pridefest 2019 along with some other amazing Pridefest Queens.” 10pm/$5
Madison Social: 2nd Annual Tallahassee Coffee Festival: Pour Me a Cup of 850. “The Tallahassee Coffee Festival is back and better than ever. We have brought together five of Tallahassee's best coffee shops from around town to provide some amazing coffee experiences. New this year, tickets will include unlimited sampling of different experiences from Lucky Goat Coffee, RedEye Coffee, Brooklyn Water Bagel, and Serenity Coffee and Kava Bar. There will be option to add on a commemorative campfire style mug and/or t-shirt.” 9:30am-Noon
Cascades Park: PrideFest Week: Tally RootCamp. “RootCamps are affirming spaces for queer, trans, and gender non-conforming, and non-binary people. All ability levels are welcome. Let’s stretch, move our bodies, and build community.” 11am-Noon
Backwoods Bistro: Sway Jah Vu. 11am
Five Point Sheraton: LGBTQ Trailblazers of Color Gala. “Honoring outstanding individuals of color who are advocates in the fight against HIV/AIDS, have pushed the advancement of LGBTQ rights, & have been in influence in our community! Brunch is provided. Please wear your Sunday Best.” Noon-3pm/free
Lafayette Heritage Trail Park: Lake Lafayette Bio-Blitz: A City Nature Challenge Event. “Join the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission for an afternoon of exploration on and around Lake Lafayette. We will have naturalists leading a paddling tour (bring your own boat), or you can hike with members of the Florida Trail Association as you make observations using iNaturalist.” 1pm
The Bowery in Apalach: Jimmy Buffett Tribute Island Fun'draiser. “The Friends of St. Vincent will be hosting a Jimmy Buffett Island tribute featuring Sticky Too!. Thanks to our generous sponsors: Bowery Station, OCBC and 13 Mile! There will be a live auction, corn hole tournament AND for all those Parrot Heads out there .... a costume contest! Come enjoy a Wildlife Lager from OCBC, food from 13 Mile Seafood and a good ole laid back time dancing to Jimmy Buffett tunes!” 1pm-6pm
Fire Betty’s: Bar Wars! “We’re having a very special edition of Sunday Funday on April 28th! BAR WARS is a theme competition among different hospitality staffs to see which group is the apex of the service industry in Tallahassee. There’ll be prizes for the best team theme, best team name, most team spirit and a timed team relay along with a few extra surprises;) Special guests with special prizes and swag will be here to help keep things lubricated all night long. You can sign-up as a team of your 4 best 21+ representatives of your local business anytime at Fire Betty’s. The deadline for sign-up is by 6PM on Sunday.” 6pm-2am
Signature Lounge: Night of Bars. “The 9th Installment of the Night of Bars experience created and curated by OHTIS and powered by Dojo Aesthetics and CAP 6. Featuring Young Soul, Napalm, Elijah Kenny, Kleo, Israel Jones, JQ, Shon Eleazor, and, Tareef Knockout. + Special Guests. Sounds by IZZY B.” 8pm/$7 for single tickets, $10 for doubles
Blue Tavern: Ben Banks & The Backups. 8pm
The Yard @ RR Sq: Trivia Night, Hosted by the Women’s Council of Realtors. “Join us at The Yard at Railroad Square for laughs and good times! Our Trivia Contest will be a great way to learn about our strategic partners and our members. Submit your fun questions and answers about women's council past events and history. Chances to win free prizes and tickets to our District Conference will be available!” 4:30pm
Proof: American Spring LIVE Party. “Spring is one of nature’s greatest performances – a time of rebirth, renewed energy and dramatic transformations. For three consecutive nights, Monday, April 29 – Wednesday, May 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET on WFSU-TV and Facebook, American Spring LIVE presents the change from winter to spring in real time from iconic locations across America. Join WFSU team members and our EcoCitizen partners with Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission and the Coastal Plains Institute for an iNaturalist Tallahassee Leon County City Nature Challenge curation session, followed by a special screening of this program.” 7pm
The Bark: GILT/Hyper Enough/ Dead Enders. Karaoke after the show. 7:30pm/$5/all ages
Overview: This post seeks to articulate an investment thesis for Unity Biotechnology (UBX). I welcome any perspectives that challenge this thesis. In light of Unity’s strong team, promising science, risk mitigation strategy, large market potential, loosely defined category, and recent pullback in valuation I believe this is an opportune time to begin building exposure to the company. Unity is a clinical stage biotechnology company developing drugs to extend human health span (defined as how long we live free of chronic diseases of ageing). Unity works across the spectrum of mechanisms that drive aging with a near term priority to remove senescence cells for patients with osteoarthritis (the main reason it hurts to be old). Senescence cells (SC) are cells that no longer divide and tend to poison around nearby tissue (cause inflammation). Beyond osteoarthritis, Unity will also work to rollout similar therapies for eye, pulmonary, and cognitive diseases which affects millions of aging individuals. Unity’s current market cap is 360MM, the company went public in May 2018 at a valuation of 700MM valuation. What difficult problem is the company solving (better than others)? Key questions include: Why do people get sicker as we age? Are there drugs to halt, slow, or potentially reverse the mechanisms of aging? What is the most impactful disease to demonstrate the drug’s efficacy and safety? As context, quality of life decreases as we age due to a number of factors including stem cells (loss of mitochondrial function), nutrient sensing (caloric restriction as we age), circulating youth factors (loss of protein production) and cellular senescence (cells that no longer split and cause multiple issues in nearby micro tissue). Unity focuses on cellular senescence, not because it is the only or even most important aging mechanism, but because of all the mechanisms identified to date, it is the most “druggable” approach (i.e. easiest to make drugs and molecules to combat against). During the last 7 years, Unity has proven their thesis in mice allocating several rounds of venture capital to mitigate the main scientific questions and company killer risks. The scientific breakthrough leading to company’s creation occurred in 2008, when Judy Campisy (one of Unity’s co-founders) effectively showed that accumulation of SC poisons local tissue and contributes to diseases of aging, based on this and subsequent scientific research, the team at Unity proved that removing SC in mice (genetically engineered to age faster), not only increased lifespan by ~35% but improved bone density, mobility, hair growth, and decreased cognitive decline, materially improving overall health span. Unity recently completed Phase 1 clinical trials to prove safety and tolerability in humans with osteoarthritis of the knee. Over the next few quarters the company will work to replicate the technical success seen from removing SC in mice on humans and will continue to expand its pipeline. Next areas of focus will include ophthalmology, pulmonary, and cognitive diseases of age affecting millions of aging Americans. Is this the right/best team to solve this problem? Unity features a solid team (presumably the best) to succeed in this nascent but promising field. Nathaniel (Ned) David (President and co-Founder) co-founding four biotech companies (two exits large exists, one for $270mm another for $2.1bn) and gotten two drugs approved. Ned is also a tenured partner at ARCH Ventures (credible biotech VC firm with strong realizations). Sapphire Energy (genetically engineered algae to produce liquid transportation fuels) was a well documented failure executed proved leading bio-engineering and built production at scale, the company was backed with Bill Gates. Technical co-founders include two pioneers in the field of aging research: Judith Campisi (Buck Institute) and Jan Van Deursen (Mayo Clinic). Keith Leonard (former CEO at Kythera) acts as Unity’s CEO and has worked with Ned for 15 years and was a former senior executive at Amgen. The board features prominent VCs and scientists (Bob Nelsen and Kristine Burow from ARCH Ventures, Camille Samuels from Venrock, Margo Roberts former CSO of Kite Pharma). Financial backers include top-tier VCs and Family Offices featuring Jeff Bezos, Peter Theil, and Paul Allen among other prominent financial and strategic institutions that further legitimize the investment opportunity and caliber of the team. How will Unity capture, distribute, and realize value? Is their position sustainable and defensible? Unity is a clinical stage/pre-revenue company focused on R&D. There is little visibility as to timeline of commercializing any of its drugs yet, let alone go-to-market strategy. This is common of early stage biotechnology companies. Guidance on pricing, go-to-market, and distribution will likely be provided as closer to Phase 3 and commercial viability. As customary, we expect the company’s position to be defensible though the use of patents, intellectual property rights, as well as exclusive licensing and/or royalty structure with leading larger pharma partners. What is the market opportunity and state of competition? The market for health span drugs is large given the tens of millions of aging baby boomers in America and other developed markets suffering from arthritis, pulmonary, eye and cognitive diseases related to aging with estimates of potential royalty payments between 2-5 billion. There are multiple smaller players in the field pursuing multiple other mechanisms but generally lack both credible talent and financial backing. Competition from large pharmaceutical companies is not evident at this stage but expected to increase as technical and commercial feasibility becomes more evident. A potential acquisition is a probable scenario but Unity also has the potential to become a durable and standalone commercial aging platform (releasing new drugs with little incremental cost) to generate large future cash flows streams. Why is now the right time to invest? Biotech is a risky endeavor, it takes time and capital with significant binary risk. Due to the slow nature of clinical trials it could be 2-3 years before their thesis fully plays out -- by such time it may be too late to fully participate in the upside. Given this uncertainty, young and smaller capitalization companies fluctuate widely in value, making an investment highly speculative and prone to failure. As of July 2019, Unity has lost nearly 50% of its IPO valuation and trades at a small premium to all capital raised to date (market value to total paid-in capital of ~15%). Due to high R&D and overhead, a dilutive follow-on transaction is likely within the next 12-18 months. This investment represents an opportunity to gain exposure to VC like risk/reward through a public vehicle. Unity looks like an option to get exposure to an emerging and large vertical of healthcare. Although highly speculative this seems like an opportune time to build a position in the company. Consider building exposure a 4-5% exposure at ~$8.5/share leaving reserves to accumulate more with more evidence of technical success. I welcome your views on this thesis*!* This is post is not investment advise.
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191009(Market index 37- Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/hwli4i9v7ir31.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f3f41350dcae08c3b6e55744d86d701fac988ec Daily Active Users Of EOS, Ethereum, IOST, And TRON DApps Totaled 137087 On Oct 7 Citing data from DApp Total, as of 00:00 (UTC+8), October 8, EOS, Ethereum, IOST, and TRON DApps recorded 137,087 daily active users (DAUs), 50.53% of which were EOS-based. 1. Number of users: EOS (69,269) > ETH (44,088) > TRON (23,730) > IOST (3,350); 2. Number of transactions: EOS (3,147,112) > TRON (923,074) > IOST (171,596) > ETH (150,730); 3. Trading volume: TRON ($10,356,177) > EOS ($5,251,676) > ETH ($4,935,403) > IOST ($930,711). In addition, across the Ethereum, EOS, IOST, and TRON blockchains, the top 3 DApps by user number are: Hash Baby (EOS), Xdapp (EOS), and Dice(EOS); the top 3 DApps by transaction number are: Dice (EOS), WINk (TRON), and Gako Binary Option (EOS); the top 3 DApps by trading volume are: WINk (TRON), Newdex (EOS), and EOS REX (EOS). Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry To Legalize Cryptomining Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry plans to legalize cryptocurrency mining or cryptomining in Ukraine within two or three years. Libra Could Be A ‘Systemically Important’ Payment Platform, Says Bank Of England In a statement made on Oct 8, the Bank of England (BoE) said that Libra is potentially a ‘systemically important’ payment platform, adding that it needs to be a regulated one as well. The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee has pledged that British regulators will look into the functions of Libra and other payment firms, and address the question of applying traditional regulations to them. According to the committee, “The resilience of the proposed Libra system would rely on the stability of not just the core elements of the Libra Association and Libra Reserve but also the associated critical activities conducted by other firms in the Libra ecosystem such as validators, exchanges or wallet providers.” Libra Association Considering “Step-Ladder” Approach To KYC Regulations The Libra Association is thinking of radical approaches to reach the unbanked in certain locations, including a “step-ladder” approach to know-your-customer (KYC) regulations, according to a recent report by CoinDesk. Per the report, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) said it is open to working with Libra about potentially building new forms of digital identity. The report also revealed that Libra believes blockchain forensics firms like Chainalysis, Elliptic, and Coinfirm will help strengthen the case for “tiered KYC” by monitoring wallet profiles and transaction histories. Besides, non-profits in the Libra Association like the Kiva Foundation may play a key role. Swiss National Bank and Swiss Stock Exchange Team Up On Central Bank-Backed Digital Currency The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and stock exchange SIX will jointly explore how to make central bank digital money available for the trading and settlement among financial market players. The buying and selling of assets based on digital ledger technology has the potential to reduce counterparty risk and create “significant” economic opportunities, SIX said in a statement Wednesday, October 9. The initiative is part the innovation hub for financial technology the Bank for International Settlements announced it was setting up earlier this year with the SNB. Other hub centers will be based in Hong Kong and Singapore.
Encrypted project calendar（October 09, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.TRON (TRX):Next Wednesday, Oct 9th at 11am PDT I’ll be hosting another@PeriscopeCo/@YouTubeLivestreamiExec RLC (RLC):09 October 2019 Osaka Meetup “An evening of quality food, free-flowing drinks and good company — just across the street from the conference!”Binance Coin BNB:09 October 2019 Riga, Latvia Meetup “October 9th we invite you to visit our first Binance meetup in Riga, Latvia!”Pundi X (NPXS):09 October 2019 Beyond Consensus “Beyond Consensus — Crypto in Asia” from 6–10 PM (JST).Chainlink (LINK):09 October 2019 Chainlink Happy Hour “Come to the #Chainlink Happy Hour on Wed Oct 9th right next to the #Devcon5 conference on the Hyatt Regency rooftop!”BTC Lite (BTCL):09 October 2019 DEX Listing BTC Lite (BTCL) will be listed on a decentralized exchange.BitTorrent (BTT):09 October 2019 Live Product Update “Remember to join our CEO,@justinsuntron, on Oct 9th at 11am PDT for a product update live stream on BitTorrent Speed, BTFS, and BLIVE!”
Encrypted project calendar（October 10, 2019）
INB/Insight Chain:The Insight Chain (INB) INB public blockchain main network will be launched on October 10.VET/Vechain:VeChain (VET) will attend the BLOCKWALKS Blockchain Europe Conference on October 10.CAPP/Cappasity:Cappasity (CAPP) Cappasity will be present at the Osaka Global Innovation Forum in Osaka (October 10–11).TrueFeedBack (TFB):10 October 2019 (or earlier) Application Release New version of TFB application and TFB bounty application.Sparkpoint (SRK):10 October 2019 4rth Quarterly Burn SparkPoint ( SRK) will execute its 4rth quarterly burn on October 10, 2019.Insight Chain (INB): 10 October 2019 Mainnet Launch “The Mainnet for INB Public Blockchain Will be Launched on October 10.”Celer Network (CELR)and 4 others: 10 October 2019 Layer 2 Meetup Osaka “Join us at Layer 2 Meetup for fruitful networking, chilled atmosphere & sushi on October 10, 2019 during the DevCon in Osaka, Japan.”Cappasity (CAPP):10 October 2019 Global Innovation Forum Cappasity presents at Osaka’s Global Innovation Forum in Osaka.ThoreNext (THX):10 October 2019 Submission Last Date “$THX #THX Swap #Update Submission Last Date 10–10–2019”
Encrypted project calendar（October 11, 2019）
OKB/OKB:OKB (OKB) OKEx series of talks will be held in Istanbul on October 11th to discuss “the rise of the Turkish blockchain.”Aragon (ANT):11 October 2019 Osaka DAO Party “We are excited to invite you to our@EFDevconAragon Dream DAO Party — DAICO Edition in Osaka on the evening of October 11th!”BitTorrent (BTT)and 1 othe: 11 October 2019 Airdrop “On October 11th 00:00 UTC we will initiate our ninth $BTT airdrop and reward TRON $TRX holders with 990,000,000 #BTT!”Zilliqa (ZIL):11 October 2019 Dev Call “The Aztec Protocol team will be joining our 4th Dev Call this Friday at 2pm EST. We will be having interesting conversations aboutFOAM (FOAM): 11 October 2019 Osaka Happy Hour “Join FOAM and@3boxdbfor a #DevCon Happy Hour in Osaka this Friday at Runway lounge.”
Encrypted project calendar（October 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 Global Mining Leaders Summit will be held in Chengdu, China from October 12th to 14th.
Encrypted project calendar（October 14, 2019）
BCH/Bitcoin Cash:The ChainPoint 19 conference will be held in Armenia from October 14th to 15th.
Encrypted project calendar（October 15, 2019）
RUFF/RUFF Token:Ruff will end the three-month early bird program on October 15thKAT/Kambria:Kambria (KAT) exchanges ERC20 KAT for a 10% bonus on BEP2 KAT-7BB, and the token exchange reward will end on October 15.BTC/Bitcoin:The Blockchain Technology Investment Summit (CIS) will be held in Los Angeles from October 15th to 16th.
Encrypted project calendar（October 16, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 Blockchain Life Summit will be held in Moscow, Russia from October 16th to 17th.MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on the theme of “Technology Problem Solving and Testing IoT Devices” at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on October 16.ETH/Ethereum:Ethereum launches Istanbul (Istanbul) main network upgrade, this main network upgrade involves 6 code upgrades.QTUM/Qtum:Qtum (QTUM) Qtum main network hard fork is scheduled for October 16.
Encrypted project calendar（October 18, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The SEC will give a pass on the VanEck/SolidX ETF on October 18th and make a final decisionHB/HeartBout:HeartBout (HB) will officially release the Android version of the HeartBout app on October 18.
Encrypted project calendar（October 19, 2019）
PI/PCHAIN Network:The PCHAIN (PI) backbone (Phase 5, 82 nodes, 164, 023, 802 $ PI, 7 candidates) will begin on October 19.LINK/ChainLink:Diffusion 2019 will be held in Berlin, Germany from October 19th to 20th
Encrypted project calendar（October 21, 2019）
KNC/Kyber Network:The official online hackathon of the Kyber Network (KNC) project will end on October 21st, with more than $42,000 in prize money.
Encrypted project calendar（October 22, 2019）
ZRX/0x:The 0x protocol (ZRX) Pantera blockchain summit will be held on October 22.
Encrypted project calendar（October 23, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 23rd at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles with the theme “Connecting the I3 Market and Experiencing Purchase and Sales Data.”BTC/Bitcoin:The WBS World Blockchain Summit (Middle East) will be held in Dubai from October 23rd to 24th.
Encrypted project calendar（October 24, 2019）
BCN/Bytecoin:Bytecoin (BCN) released the hidden amount of the Bytecoin block network on October 24.
Encrypted project calendar（October 25, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) The Ada community will host a community gathering in the Dominican Republic for the first time on October 25.
Encrypted project calendar（October 26, 2019）
KAT/Kambria:Kambria (KAT) Kambria will host the 2019 Southern California Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Conference in Los Angeles on October 26th with IDEAS.BTC/Bitcoin:CoinAgenda Global Summit will be held in Las Vegas from October 26th to 28th
Encrypted project calendar（October 28, 2019）
LTC/Litecoin:Litecoin (LTC) 2019 Litecoin Summit will be held from October 28th to October 29th in Las Vegas, USABTC/Bitcoin:Mt.Gox changes the debt compensation plan submission deadline to October 28ZEC/Zcash:Zcash (ZEC) will activate the Blossom Agreement on October 28th
Encrypted project calendar（October 29, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd World Encryption Conference (WCC) will be held in Las Vegas from October 29th to 31st.
Encrypted project calendar（October 30, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 30th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the topic “How to store data on IOTA Tangle.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 1, 2019）
INS/Insolar:The Insolar (INS) Insolar wallet and the redesigned Insolar Block Explorer will be operational on November 1, 2019.
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.
BTC — Yesterday to this day, the BTC has been shaking slightly and is still hovering around $8,200. In the past 24 hours, the net inflow of BT funds is less than 40 million US dollars, and the market inflow of funds is gradually shrinking. Yesterday, BTC rose to around $8,400 and then withdrew. The rise was weakening. In the short run, it was still mainly a volatile market. It was more difficult to break through the bottom volatility directly. However, in the medium-term trend, BTC is currently under construction. Market sentiment is gradually warming up, with the following focus on the important support of $7,800. Operational aspects, close to $8,000 can be considered to buy appropriately, if the follow-up can again explore the support level, may usher in a more appropriate warehouse building opportunity. Review previous articles:https://firstname.lastname@example.org Telegram： https://t.me/Lay126 Twitter：https://twitter.com/mianhuai8 Facebook：https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100022246432745 Reddi：https://www.reddit.com/useliuidaxmn LinkedIn：https://www.linkedin.com/in/liu-wei-294a12176/
salesforce.com, inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions, with a focus on customer relationship management (CRM). The Company's Customer Success Platform, including sales force automation, customer service and support, marketing automation, community management, analytics, application development, etc. So why buy Twitter? Here's that Reuters says:
Unlike Twitter, its main product is aimed at business users, not consumers. Under Salesforce.com, Twitter could become a corporate tool used to power sentiment analysis and nurture customer relationships.
Now odd that that might seem, remember that we the user of Google are not the "customers". The advertisers are the customers. So perhaps there is method in the madness?
It's really hard to not be impressed by a top line like CRM's! And given it's a "cloud" business with a "SaaS" model, the momentum should run. Why? folks are signing up for monthly subscriptions and they just seem to never go cancelling them in the software space.
Of course, it's troubling that the company hasn't turned a profit in the last 5 years, but here's to a first in the year to Jan 2017!
Talking about the competition, Salesforce highlights:
We compete primarily with generalized platforms and vendors of packaged business software, as well as companies offering enterprise apps, including CRM, collaboration and business intelligence software. We also compete with internally developed apps. We may encounter competition from established enterprise software vendors, as well as start-up and midsized companies focused on disruption, who may develop toolsets and products that allow customers to build new apps that run on the customers’ current infrastructure or as hosted services.
Though one of the competitive risks they highlight is actual a strength of there own!
Many prospective customers have invested substantial personnel and financial resources to implement and integrate their current enterprise software into their businesses and therefore may be reluctant or unwilling to migrate away from their current solution to an enterprise cloud computing application service.
i.e. like a lot of software based services, once you've got the client they are loathed to leave. And how does this show on in the financials, well the old men of Enterprise technology (MSFT, ORCL, SAP) enjoy little growth but great returns and margins. But the new kids, CRM, WDAY, NOW have the growth but little margin or return.
Return on Equity
SAP SE (ADR)
Cash / Debt?
If we look at salesforce's balance sheet we can see it has $1,340M of net debt. That is 2.2x it's latest operating profit. So it's a $50bn market value business with quite a bit of debt on it's books and it's considering a bid for TWTR a $13bn value business (though $2bn of that is cash).
Wall Street thinks?
The professionals on Wall Street have a $93.51 for salesforce.com, inc. and their recommendation to clients is Buy. That implies an upside of 29% to their target.
I've always struggled to value the highflying SaaS businesses. The regular metrics just don't give any comfort. And if I switch to price-to-sales I still get faced with CRM on 6x forward sales versus MSFT/ORCL on 4x. So where's the comfort there? And I can't even hang my hat on the earnings the year after next :( With a forecast of $0.95 this year and just $1.27 the year after.
To try and justify the valuation you need to dig into the cashflow statement and drink from the SaaS KoolAid. For example on the managements 2Q results they talked about:
our full year operating cash flow guidance to a year-over-year growth rate of 20% to 21% which allows us to remain on track for our first $2 billion cash flow year.
Now 25x cashflow doesn't look "hideous" for a business growing like CRM... but if you start looking at the way that figure is calculated, I expect you'll be surprised to see Depreciation > capex, half of the figure coming in deferred revenue, and a substantial % from stock-options-plan adjustments.
You won't be surprised that salesforce.com, inc. is not forecast to pay a dividend this year. Though in share contrast to the big caps who like doing share buybacks, the number of share in circulation at CRM is up substantially in each of the last 5 years.
In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by -11% that compares with no change in the earnings forecasts. The backdrop has been continued double digit top line growth at 26% in the first 6 months. On the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers, they raised guidance for sales, expressed confidence in their margin, spoke of an exciting new set of products (e.g. Einstein), strong cashflows and much more. In the near-term it's hard to see any catalyst other than the rumor mill round Twitter. And binary outcomes are a horrible environment to take a position in. You'll either feel like a hero or get hammered. For me, it's one to sit out. Unless of course the stock get's hammered, with investors throwing the baby out with the bathwater! View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday. And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next! If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :). Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. Note: I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
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